This technical outlook and market review for Friday, October 4th, 2024, is structured to provide a comprehensive analysis for traders and investors, using top-notch technical indicators, key support and resistance levels, and upcoming economic events that could impact asset movements. Our detailed breakdown covers major currency pairs, commodities, and indices, highlighting potential trade opportunities based on technical setups. We’ve also incorporated economic data releases and their potential effects, ensuring a thorough market overview.
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Friday, 4th October 2024: Technical Outlook and Market Review
DXY (US Dollar Index)
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Price Action: Bearish reaction off pivot, potentially dropping to 1st support.
- Pivot: 102.34
- Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance and 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, indicating a significant resistance point.
- 1st Support: 101.46
- Supporting Reasons: Pullback support, which could provide strong support if the price declines.
- 1st Resistance: 103.08
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance where the price may face selling pressure if it rises.
EUR/USD
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Price Action: Bullish continuation towards 1st resistance.
- Pivot: 1.10
- Supporting Reasons: Multi-swing low support, indicating a strong support point.
- 1st Support: 1.09
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap support and 127.20% Fibonacci Extension, suggesting strong support if the price declines.
- 1st Resistance: 1.11
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance with 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, potentially triggering selling pressure if tested.
EUR/JPY
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Price Action: Bullish bounce off pivot, heading towards 1st resistance.
- Pivot: 160.71
- Supporting Reasons: Pullback support indicates a significant level to watch for potential bullish momentum.
- 1st Support: 158.28
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap support close to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting strong support in case of a decline.
- 1st Resistance: 163.78
- Supporting Reasons: Multi-swing high resistance where selling pressure may emerge.
EUR/GBP
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Price Action: Bullish bounce off pivot, heading towards 1st resistance.
- Pivot: 0.8359
- Supporting Reasons: Pullback support indicating a significant point for potential bullish momentum.
- 1st Support: 0.8316
- Supporting Reasons: Multi-swing low support, providing a strong support level if the price drops.
- 1st Resistance: 0.8453
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance near 50% Fibonacci retracement, marking a potential selling zone.
GBP/USD
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Price Action: Bullish bounce off pivot, aiming towards 1st resistance.
- Pivot: 1.3316
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap support and 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating potential bullish reversal.
- 1st Support: 1.2941
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap support with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, providing a critical support zone.
- 1st Resistance: 1.3229
- Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressure may increase.
GBP/JPY
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Price Action: Bearish reaction off pivot, possibly dropping to 1st support.
- Pivot: 193.10
- Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance indicates a strong resistance level for a potential bearish reaction.
- 1st Support: 190.07
- Supporting Reasons: Multi-swing low support with 50% Fibonacci retracement suggests a strong support zone.
- 1st Resistance: 195.96
- Supporting Reasons: Swing high resistance, potentially leading to selling pressure.
USD/CHF
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Price Action: Bullish bounce off pivot, heading towards 1st resistance.
- Pivot: 0.8511
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap support suggests a strong level of support if price rebounds.
- 1st Support: 0.8405
- Supporting Reasons: Multi-swing low support provides a solid area of interest for buyers.
- 1st Resistance: 0.8622
- Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, indicating strong resistance.
USD/JPY
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Price Action: Bearish continuation towards 1st support.
- Pivot: 147.00
- Supporting Reasons: Multi-swing high resistance and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, signaling strong resistance.
- 1st Support: 145.03
- Supporting Reasons: Pullback support, indicating a strong level of support if price declines.
- 1st Resistance: 147.87
- Supporting Reasons: 127.20% Fibonacci extension, where selling pressure could arise.
USD/CAD
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Neutral
- Price Action: Bearish reversal off pivot, possibly falling towards 1st support.
- Pivot: 1.3568
- Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% projection, suggesting potential for selling pressure.
- 1st Support: 1.3473
- Supporting Reasons: Pullback support where recent buying pressure has emerged.
- 1st Resistance: 1.3635
- Supporting Reasons: Swing-high resistance, potentially halting further upward movement.
AUD/USD
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Neutral
- Price Action: Bullish bounce off pivot, moving towards 1st resistance.
- Pivot: 0.6807
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap support aligning with a confluence of Fibonacci levels (23.6% and 38.2% retracements), suggesting buying interest.
- 1st Support: 0.6749
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap support aligned with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a level where price could find support.
- 1st Resistance: 0.6937
- Supporting Reasons: Swing-high resistance, potentially halting further upward movement.
NZD/USD
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Price Action: Bearish reversal off pivot, potentially falling towards 1st support.
- Pivot: 0.6254
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance aligning with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, signaling selling pressure.
- 1st Support: 0.6155
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap support aligning with 78.6% retracement, suggesting price could find support again.
- 1st Resistance: 0.6304
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance aligning with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where price may encounter resistance.
US30 (Dow Jones)
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Neutral
- Price Action: Bullish bounce off pivot, rising towards 1st resistance.
- Pivot: 41,855.66
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap support suggests a rebound is possible from this level.
- 1st Support: 41,432.30
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap support aligning with 50% Fibonacci retracement.
- 1st Resistance: 42,654.55
- Supporting Reasons: Swing-high resistance aligning with 78.6% projection and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
DE40 (DAX)
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Price Action: Bullish bounce off pivot, heading towards 1st resistance.
- Pivot: 18,886.10
- Supporting Reasons: Pullback support aligning with 50% Fibonacci retracement.
- 1st Support: 18,715.40
- Supporting Reasons: Pullback support aligning with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
- 1st Resistance: 19,185.10
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance suggesting a potential area to halt upward movement.
US500 (S&P 500)
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Neutral
- Price Action: Bullish bounce off pivot, moving towards 1st resistance.
- Pivot: 5,669.89
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap support aligning with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
- 1st Support: 5,600.60
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap support aligning with 50% Fibonacci retracement.
- 1st Resistance: 5,767.00
- Supporting Reasons: Swing-high resistance near all-time high, potentially halting further upward movement.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Price Action: Bullish bounce off pivot, targeting 1st resistance.
- Pivot: 59,421.33
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap support aligning with 50% Fibonacci retracement.
- 1st Support: 57,935.37
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap support aligning with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
- 1st Resistance: 63,092.43
- Supporting Reasons: Pullback resistance aligning with 50% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential selling area.
ETH/USD (Ethereum)
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Price Action: Bearish reversal off pivot, heading towards 1st support.
- Pivot: 2,439.98
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance where selling pressures could intensify.
- 1st Support: 2,271.00
- Supporting Reasons: Pullback support aligning with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
- 1st Resistance: 2,536.45
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance aligning with 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential resistance zone.
WTI/USD (Oil)
- Potential Direction: Bullish
- Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Price Action: Bullish break above pivot, targeting 1st resistance.
- Pivot: 74.91
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance, where strong bullish momentum could lead to a break above this level.
- 1st Support: 73.03
- Supporting Reasons: Pullback support aligning with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
- 1st Resistance: 77.53
- Supporting Reasons: Swing-high resistance aligning with 161.8% Fibonacci extension, potentially halting upward movement.
XAU/USD (Gold)
- Potential Direction: Bearish
- Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Price Action: Bearish continuation towards 1st support.
- Pivot: 2660.47
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap resistance and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a significant resistance point.
- 1st Support: 2632.25
- Supporting Reasons: Overlap support and 78.60% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting strong support if price declines.
- 1st Resistance: 2685.54
- Supporting Reasons: Swing-high resistance, indicating selling pressure if price rises.
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