SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s central bank held back on buying gold for its reserves for a fifth straight month in September, official data showed on Monday, mainly due to a surge in prices for the yellow metal.
China’s gold holdings stood at 72.8 million troy ounces at the end of last month. The value of the gold reserves, however, rose to $191.47 billion from $182.98 billion at the end of August.
Gold prices have risen around 28% so far this year – heading for the biggest annual gain in 14 years – underpinned by the start of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions and robust demand from central banks.
Global central banks, which actively bought gold in 2022-2023, are on track to slow purchases in 2024 from 2023, according to the World Gold Council, but to keep them above the pre-2022 level.
This is partly due to the pause in purchases by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), which until May had bought gold for 18 consecutive months.
The central bank was the world’s largest official sector buyer of gold in 2023 and its decision to put its buying on hold muted Chinese investor demand in recent months. “With higher gold prices, the PBOC continues to pause from new purchases. We believe the central bank would like more gold but is waiting for a more attractive entry point,” said WisdomTree commodity strategist Nitesh Shah.
“However, with global interest rates falling and geopolitical tensions rising, it looks like they may have to wait for some time for a price dip. Given our forecast of prices rising to over $3,000/oz in the coming year, the central bank may want to consider building positions earlier.”
Analysis:
The decision of the People’s Bank of China to halt its gold reserves purchase for the fifth consecutive month due to surging prices reflects a strategic move influenced by global economic factors. With gold prices on the rise and geopolitical tensions impacting market dynamics, central banks around the world are reassessing their investment strategies. This pause in gold purchases by the PBOC may have a ripple effect on investor sentiment and demand in the coming months. As prices are forecasted to continue increasing, individuals and institutions alike should consider the implications of these trends on their investment portfolios and financial decisions.