The State of NZD/USD in the Asian Session
- NZD/USD trades on a softer note around 0.6165 in Monday’s Asian session.
- Traders pull back expectations for a 50 bps cut from the Fed at its November meeting after the upbeat NFP data.
- The RBNZ is expected to cut another OCR in its October meeting on Wednesday.
The NZD/USD pair remains on the defensive near 0.6165 during the early Asian session on Monday. The firmer Greenback after the encouraging US employment data exerts some selling pressure on the pair. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest decision will take center stage on Wednesday.
Factors Influencing NZD/USD Pair
- The recent US economic data indicated strength in labor conditions and will likely support the case for the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cuts by 25 basis points (bps) in November and December.
- Traders are now pricing in around 97.4% possibility of 25 bps Fed rate cuts in September, up from 31.1% before the NFP data, according to the CME Fedwatch Tool.
- Lower bets of an aggressive Fed rate cut boost the US Dollar (USD) against the Kiwi.
- Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasized on Friday that the September jobs report doesn’t alter the view that interest rates can come down “a lot” over the next year and a half.
RBNZ’s Monetary Policy
- The RBNZ started the easing cycle in August with a 25 basis points (bps) cut to 5.25%, and analysts expect the New Zealand central bank to cut further the Official Cash Rate (OCR) in its October meeting on Wednesday.
- Standard Chartered analysts predict two 50bps cuts in Q4-2024, taking the OCR to 4.25% by end-2024.
- Analysts maintain their view for 125bps of cuts in 2025, and see the OCR at 3% by end-2025.
RBNZ FAQs
What is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)?
The RBNZ is the country’s central bank with economic objectives of achieving and maintaining price stability and supporting maximum sustainable employment.
How does the RBNZ’s Monetary Policy affect NZD?
The RBNZ’s Monetary Policy Committee decides the appropriate level of the OCR to control inflation. Higher interest rates strengthen NZD, while lower rates weaken it.
Why is Employment Important for the RBNZ?
Employment is crucial for the RBNZ to manage inflation. Maximum sustainable employment helps in controlling inflation rates.
What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and its Impact on NZD?
QE is a tool used by the RBNZ to stimulate the economy by buying assets. It usually results in a weaker NZD and is used as a last resort in extreme situations.