Market Technical Analysis: Key Signals for October 9, 2024
Today’s market outlook offers a detailed analysis of major currency pairs, indices, and commodities, providing traders and investors with actionable insights based on technical indicators and upcoming economic events. We assess key support and resistance levels for each asset and highlight potential trading opportunities, helping you navigate the market effectively. With volatility driven by critical data releases and central bank speeches, this analysis aims to prepare you for the most likely scenarios. Stay informed with comprehensive breakdowns and clear trading signals to make confident decisions.
Market Analysis: Trading Signals for October 9, 2024
| Asset | Direction | Pivot | Support | Resistance | Upcoming Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | Bullish | 102.16 | 101.17 | 103.68 | FOMC Minutes |
| EUR/USD | Bearish | 1.1005 | 1.0935 | 1.1080 | ECB Elderson Speech |
| EUR/JPY | Bullish | 160.90 | 158.26 | 164.87 | JPY Machine Orders |
| EUR/GBP | Bullish | 0.8358 | 0.8311 | 0.8454 | GBP Bond Auction |
| GBP/USD | Bearish | 1.3156 | 1.3030 | 1.3259 | Housing Data |
| GBP/JPY | Bullish | 193.13 | 190.38 | 195.91 | JPY PPI (Sep) |
| USD/CHF | Bullish | 0.8518 | 0.8401 | 0.8622 | FOMC Minutes |
| USD/JPY | Bullish | 147.11 | 144.32 | 149.41 | 10-Year Note Auction |
| USD/CAD | Bullish | 1.3635 | 1.3582 | 1.3729 | EIA Crude Oil Stocks |
| AUD/USD | Bearish | 0.6731 | 0.6688 | 0.6769 | Consumer Inflation Expectations |
| NZD/USD | Bearish | 0.6114 | 0.6081 | 0.6163 | NZ Business PMI |
| US30 (DJIA) | Bullish | 41,855.66 | 41,604.84 | 42,395.55 | FOMC Minutes |
| DE40 (DAX) | Bearish | 19,224.30 | 18,886.10 | 19,446.30 | Industrial Output Data |
| US500 (S&P 500) | Bearish | 5,767.00 | 5,669.89 | 5,823.13 | US CPI Data |
| BTC/USD (Bitcoin) | Bullish | 61,464.29 | 60,117.65 | 63,728.74 | FOMC Minutes |
| ETH/USD (Ethereum) | Bearish | 2,493.39 | 2,398.15 | 2,569.10 | FOMC Minutes |
| WTI/USD (Oil) | Bullish | 73.03 | 70.95 | 74.49 | EIA Crude Oil Stocks |
| XAU/USD (Gold) | Bearish | 2,625.81 | 2,590.24 | 2,672.18 | FOMC Minutes |
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DXY (US Dollar Index)
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Technical Analysis: The DXY is showing strong bullish momentum, with a potential for a rebound off the pivot level.
- Pivot: 102.16 (Key support level).
- 1st Support: 101.17 (Overlap support).
- 1st Resistance: 103.68 (Pullback resistance, 78.60% Fibonacci retracement).
- Technical Indicators:
- RSI above 50, indicating continued upward momentum.
- MACD shows bullish crossover.
- SMA (50) is supporting price action.
Economic Events Impact:
- MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct 4) at 14:00 UTC: Positive data could push the DXY higher as it reflects housing market strength in the U.S.
- FOMC Minutes (Oct 9) at 21:00 UTC: Fed’s comments on monetary policy could increase volatility, supporting the bullish outlook if hawkish.
EUR/USD
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Technical Analysis: EUR/USD is trending lower and likely to react bearishly off the pivot.
- Pivot: 1.1005 (Resistance level, 23.60% Fibonacci retracement).
- 1st Support: 1.0935 (161.80% Fibonacci extension).
- 1st Resistance: 1.1080 (50% Fibonacci retracement).
- Technical Indicators:
- RSI below 50, confirming bearish bias.
- Bearish MACD divergence.
- Price below the 100 SMA.
Economic Events Impact:
- ECB Elderson Speech (Oct 9) at 11:30 UTC: Comments on inflation and monetary policy could trigger further bearish momentum for the EUR.
- EUR Trade Balance (Aug): A positive trade balance report at 09:00 UTC may offer temporary support but is unlikely to reverse the bearish trend.
EUR/JPY
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Technical Analysis: The pair is maintaining a bullish structure, trading above a major ascending trend line.
- Pivot: 160.90 (Overlap support).
- 1st Support: 158.26 (Overlap support).
- 1st Resistance: 164.87 (127.20% Fibonacci extension, 78.60% Fibonacci projection).
- Technical Indicators:
- Price above the 200 SMA, indicating long-term bullishness.
- RSI approaching overbought levels, signaling strength.
- MACD histogram positive, with further upside potential.
Economic Events Impact:
- JPY Machine Tool Orders (Sep) at 09:00 UTC: A negative reading could fuel further upside in EUR/JPY, as a weaker yen supports the bullish scenario.
EUR/GBP
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Technical Analysis: EUR/GBP is poised for a bullish bounce off the pivot level.
- Pivot: 0.8358 (Overlap support).
- 1st Support: 0.8311 (Swing low support).
- 1st Resistance: 0.8454 (50% Fibonacci retracement, 127.20% Fibonacci extension).
- Technical Indicators:
- MACD bullish crossover.
- Stochastic oscillator in oversold territory, suggesting upward potential.
- SMA (100) acting as support.
Economic Events Impact:
- GBP Bond Auction at 12:30 UTC: A weak auction could add pressure to GBP, supporting the bullish scenario for EUR/GBP.
GBP/USD
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Technical Analysis: GBP/USD is set for a potential bearish reaction at the pivot.
- Pivot: 1.3156 (23.60% Fibonacci retracement).
- 1st Support: 1.3030 (50% Fibonacci retracement).
- 1st Resistance: 1.3259 (50% Fibonacci retracement).
- Technical Indicators:
- RSI below 50, confirming bearish bias.
- MACD showing negative momentum.
- Price below both 50 and 200 SMAs.
Economic Events Impact:
- GBP Housing Price Balance (Sep): Weak housing data could trigger additional downside in GBP/USD, strengthening the bearish forecast.
GBP/JPY
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Technical Analysis: GBP/JPY is positioned for further bullish momentum.
- Pivot: 193.13 (Overlap support).
- 1st Support: 190.38 (Overlap support).
- 1st Resistance: 195.91 (78.60% Fibonacci retracement).
- Technical Indicators:
- Price above ascending trend line, maintaining bullish structure.
- RSI approaching overbought territory.
- MACD continues to show bullish divergence.
Economic Events Impact:
- JPY PPI (Sep) at 02:50 UTC: A weaker-than-expected producer price index could boost GBP/JPY, confirming the bullish bias.
USD/CHF
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Technical Analysis: USD/CHF looks ready for a bullish bounce off support.
- Pivot: 0.8518 (Pullback support).
- 1st Support: 0.8401 (Multi-swing low support).
- 1st Resistance: 0.8622 (Pullback resistance).
- Technical Indicators:
- Price holding above the 50 SMA.
- MACD shows bullish crossover.
- RSI climbing above 50.
Economic Events Impact:
- FOMC Minutes (Oct 9): Any hawkish tone could boost USD strength, supporting the bullish outlook for USD/CHF.
USD/JPY
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Technical Analysis: USD/JPY is likely to see a bullish bounce off the pivot, continuing the uptrend.
- Pivot: 147.11 (Pullback support).
- 1st Support: 144.32 (Pullback support).
- 1st Resistance: 149.41 (Swing high resistance, 61.80% Fibonacci Projection, 161.80% Fibonacci Extension).
- Technical Indicators:
- Price holding above the 50-day SMA.
- MACD showing bullish momentum.
- RSI above 50, indicating strength.
Economic Events Impact:
- 10-Year Note Auction (Oct 9) at 20:00 UTC: If bond yields rise, it may support the USD, boosting USD/JPY higher.
- FOMC Minutes (Oct 9) at 21:00 UTC: A hawkish tone would likely fuel further upside.
USD/CAD
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Technical Analysis: USD/CAD is forming a bullish reversal near the pivot.
- Pivot: 1.3635 (Pullback support).
- 1st Support: 1.3582 (Pullback support, 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracements).
- 1st Resistance: 1.3729 (127.20% Fibonacci extension).
- Technical Indicators:
- RSI above 50, confirming bullish momentum.
- Price trading above 50-day SMA.
- MACD histogram turning positive.
Economic Events Impact:
- EIA Crude Oil Stocks (Oct 9) at 17:30 UTC: A larger-than-expected inventory build could weaken CAD, supporting the bullish outlook for USD/CAD.
AUD/USD
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Technical Analysis: AUD/USD shows bearish pressure, but a bullish bounce is possible at the pivot level.
- Pivot: 0.6731 (Overlap support).
- 1st Support: 0.6688 (78.60% Fibonacci retracement).
- 1st Resistance: 0.6769 (23.60% Fibonacci retracement).
- Technical Indicators:
- MACD showing bearish divergence.
- RSI below 50, confirming downward bias.
- Price below the 50 SMA.
Economic Events Impact:
- AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations (Oct 10) at 03:00 UTC: A higher-than-expected inflation reading could lead to temporary bullish sentiment, but the bearish structure remains dominant.
NZD/USD
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Technical Analysis: NZD/USD is trending lower after breaking below the pivot.
- Pivot: 0.6114 (Broken swing-low support).
- 1st Support: 0.6081 (Pullback support).
- 1st Resistance: 0.6163 (Overlap resistance, 23.60% Fibonacci retracement).
- Technical Indicators:
- RSI below 50, confirming a bearish bias.
- Price below 200 SMA.
- MACD showing negative momentum.
Economic Events Impact:
- NZ Business NZ PMI (Oct 11) at 00:30 UTC: A weaker PMI reading would reinforce the bearish outlook, potentially pushing NZD/USD lower.
US30 (DJIA)
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Neutral
- Technical Analysis: US30 is testing the pivot and could see a bullish bounce.
- Pivot: 41,855.66 (Overlap support).
- 1st Support: 41,604.84 (Overlap support, 38.20% Fibonacci retracement).
- 1st Resistance: 42,395.55 (Multi-swing-high resistance, close to all-time high).
- Technical Indicators:
- RSI neutral, hovering around 50.
- MACD showing neutral momentum.
- Price near 50-day SMA.
Economic Events Impact:
- FOMC Minutes (Oct 9) at 21:00 UTC: A dovish tone could support US equity markets, pushing US30 higher.
- MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct 4): Positive data could add to bullish sentiment.
DE40 (DAX)
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Neutral
- Technical Analysis: DE40 is rising towards the pivot but may face bearish pressure.
- Pivot: 19,224.30 (Swing-high resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement).
- 1st Support: 18,886.10 (Swing-low support, 50% Fibonacci retracement).
- 1st Resistance: 19,446.30 (Swing-high resistance, 161.80% Fibonacci extension).
- Technical Indicators:
- MACD neutral, showing limited momentum.
- RSI neutral, reflecting uncertainty.
- Price near 200-day SMA.
Economic Events Impact:
- EUR Industrial Output (MoM) at 11:00 UTC: A lower-than-expected reading could lead to bearish sentiment in DE40.
US500 (S&P 500)
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Neutral
- Technical Analysis: US500 is climbing toward the pivot but faces bearish potential.
- Pivot: 5,767.00 (Multi-swing-high resistance, close to all-time high).
- 1st Support: 5,669.89 (Overlap support, 23.60% Fibonacci retracement).
- 1st Resistance: 5,823.13 (161.80% Fibonacci extension).
- Technical Indicators:
- RSI neutral, hovering near 50.
- MACD showing limited momentum.
- Price near 100 SMA.
Economic Events Impact:
- CPI Data (Oct 10) at 15:30 UTC: Higher-than-expected inflation figures could support the bearish outlook for US500, as it would signal potential rate hikes by the Fed.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Neutral
- Technical Analysis: BTC/USD could see a bullish rebound from the pivot level.
- Pivot: 61,464.29 (Pullback support, 61.80% Fibonacci retracement).
- 1st Support: 60,117.65 (Swing-low support, 50% retracement).
- 1st Resistance: 63,728.74 (Swing-high resistance, 61.80% Fibonacci retracement).
- Technical Indicators:
- MACD turning bullish.
- RSI above 50, signaling potential strength.
- Price holding above 100-day SMA.
Economic Events Impact:
- FOMC Minutes (Oct 9) at 21:00 UTC: A dovish tone could favor Bitcoin, as it may reduce concerns over rising interest rates.
ETH/USD (Ethereum)
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Neutral
- Technical Analysis: ETH/USD is approaching the pivot and may reverse lower.
- Pivot: 2,493.39 (Swing-high resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement).
- 1st Support: 2,398.15 (Overlap support, 61.80% Fibonacci retracement).
- 1st Resistance: 2,569.10 (Pullback resistance, 61.80% Fibonacci retracement).
- Technical Indicators:
- RSI near 50, showing neutrality.
- MACD showing mixed signals.
- Price near 100-day SMA.
Economic Events Impact:
- FOMC Minutes (Oct 9): A hawkish outlook may weigh on risk assets, including ETH.
WTI/USD (Oil)
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Technical Analysis: WTI could bounce from the pivot and head toward resistance.
- Pivot: 73.03 (Pullback support, 50% Fibonacci retracement).
- 1st Support: 70.95 (Pullback support, 61.80% Fibonacci retracement).
- 1st Resistance: 74.49 (Overlap resistance, 23.60% Fibonacci retracement).
- Technical Indicators:
- RSI below 50, signaling bearishness.
- MACD negative, but showing signs of a possible reversal.
- Price approaching 200-day SMA.
Economic Events Impact:
- EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Oct 9) at 17:30 UTC: A larger-than-expected inventory draw could trigger a bullish reversal in oil prices.
XAU/USD (Gold)
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Technical Analysis: XAU/USD may continue its bearish trend after a rejection at the pivot.
- Pivot: 2,625.81 (Pullback support).
- 1st Support: 2,590.24 (161.80% Fibonacci extension).
- 1st Resistance: 2,672.18 (Multi-swing-high resistance).
- Technical Indicators:
- RSI below 50, confirming bearish bias.
- MACD histogram in negative territory.
- Price below the 200-day SMA.
Economic Events Impact:
- FOMC Minutes (Oct 9): A hawkish tone from the Fed could put additional pressure on gold, as rising rates diminish its appeal as a non-yielding asset.
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