Overview
This comprehensive technical outlook focuses on key forex pairs, indices, and commodities, highlighting potential trading opportunities for both bullish and bearish positions. Each asset analysis incorporates technical indicators such as Fibonacci levels, RSI, MACD, moving averages, and candlestick patterns to give traders a more informed approach. Moreover, relevant upcoming events from the economic calendar are analyzed for their potential market impact.
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DXY (US Dollar Index)
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Price Action Setup: The US Dollar Index (DXY) has continued its bullish momentum, with a strong possibility of a continuation towards the 1st resistance at 103.68. The price recently rebounded from pivot support at 102.16, signaling potential buying interest at this level.
- Pivot Point: 102.16 – This level acts as a critical pullback support where buying pressure may intensify. The pullback to this level is supported by the 50% Fibonacci retracement, which often indicates a potential continuation zone in uptrends.
- 1st Support: 101.17 – An overlap support, where buyers could potentially re-enter if the price declines, backed by a 78.60% Fibonacci retracement.
- 1st Resistance: 103.68 – This level is a critical resistance zone marked by a 78.60% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting it could act as a selling pressure zone if the price reaches this level.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: Currently hovering around 55, indicating steady bullish momentum without being overbought.
- MACD: The histogram shows bullish momentum with no signs of divergence, supporting further upward movement.
- Candlestick Pattern: A recent bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart suggests buyer dominance at the current levels.
Upcoming Event Impact:
- USD Producer Price Index (PPI) data is expected to be released today. A higher-than-expected reading could strengthen the US Dollar as it would increase the likelihood of further tightening by the Federal Reserve.
EUR/USD
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Price Action Setup: EUR/USD remains in a bearish trend, with the potential to continue lower towards the 1st support at 1.0871. The price has struggled to move beyond the pivot at 1.0956, confirming that this level acts as significant resistance.
- Pivot Point: 1.0956 – An overlap resistance at this level suggests that selling pressure is likely to increase if the price attempts to rise towards it. This level is aligned with the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, further reinforcing its strength as a resistance zone.
- 1st Support: 1.0871 – A pullback support backed by the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting that the price may find temporary support here if the downtrend continues.
- 1st Resistance: 1.1005 – This level acts as pullback resistance and could limit upward movement in the pair, as sellers may be attracted to this zone.
Technical Indicators:
- MACD: Bearish crossover on the daily chart suggests further downside potential.
- RSI: Below 40, indicating strong bearish momentum but not yet oversold.
- Candlestick Pattern: A Bearish Harami pattern on the 4-hour chart further strengthens the case for downside continuation.
Upcoming Event Impact:
- EUR Current Account (Aug): A widening deficit in the eurozone’s current account could add to the bearish sentiment and drive EUR/USD lower.
EUR/JPY
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Price Action Setup: EUR/JPY is poised for a bullish bounce from the pivot at 161.05, with potential upward movement towards the 1st resistance at 163.52. The pair is supported by a solid uptrend and a pullback from recent highs.
- Pivot Point: 161.05 – This overlap support level is strengthened by a 50% Fibonacci retracement, where buyers may step in to resume the uptrend.
- 1st Support: 158.47 – An overlap support, where the price could find additional buying pressure if the price moves lower.
- 1st Resistance: 163.52 – Multi-swing high resistance that marks a significant area of interest for sellers. The 161.8% Fibonacci extension confluence here adds further resistance.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: Currently at 60, signaling strong bullish momentum.
- Stochastic Oscillator: Approaching overbought territory, which may suggest limited upside in the short term.
- Candlestick Pattern: Bullish Marubozu on the 4-hour chart indicates strong buying interest, confirming further upward potential.
Upcoming Event Impact:
- JPY Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production data may influence EUR/JPY. If the data disappoints, EUR/JPY could rise further on JPY weakness.
EUR/GBP
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Price Action Setup: EUR/GBP is expected to continue its bullish move toward 1st resistance at 0.8419 after bouncing off pivot support at 0.8358.
- Pivot Point: 0.8358 – An overlap support, where buyers may resume control, backed by the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement.
- 1st Support: 0.8312 – Swing low support that may provide additional support if the price declines.
- 1st Resistance: 0.8419 – Overlap resistance where sellers could re-enter, marking a potential reversal point.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: Currently at 55, suggesting moderate bullish momentum.
- MACD: Still bullish, with no signs of divergence, supporting the uptrend.
- Candlestick Pattern: Bullish Engulfing on the daily chart signals potential for further gains.
Upcoming Event Impact:
- GBP NIESR GDP Estimate could impact EUR/GBP if UK growth surprises to the upside. Positive UK data could cap gains for EUR/GBP.
GBP/USD
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Price Action Setup: GBP/USD could see a bullish bounce from pivot at 1.3030, with potential upward movement towards 1st resistance at 1.3156. The price has found support near the pivot, supported by buying interest around this level.
- Pivot Point: 1.3030 – Overlap support with 50% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting potential for a bullish bounce.
- 1st Support: 1.2944 – Overlap support, marking a level where price could find buying interest if it declines.
- 1st Resistance: 1.3156 – A key resistance level, supported by the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement, where sellers may return.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: Approaching 35, suggesting potential for a reversal from oversold conditions.
- MACD: Bearish, but momentum is weakening, signaling possible bullish retracement.
- Candlestick Pattern: Doji on the daily chart signals indecision, which may lead to a bullish reversal.
Upcoming Event Impact:
- GBP NIESR GDP Estimate (Sep): A positive report could lift GBP/USD and support the bullish reversal setup.
GBP/JPY
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Price Action Setup: Despite the bullish overall trend, GBP/JPY is showing signs of a potential bearish correction as it faces resistance near the pivot at 195.85. If the price reacts negatively to this resistance, it could drop towards the 1st support at 193.30.
- Pivot Point: 195.85 – An overlap resistance level that aligns with the 78.60% Fibonacci projection, making it a strong area for potential selling pressure.
- 1st Support: 193.30 – This overlap support level could provide a solid buying area if the price declines, backed by previous strong support in this zone.
- 1st Resistance: 199.48 – This is a critical resistance area, where price action could face strong selling pressure if it attempts to rise. Sellers may emerge at this point if the bullish trend extends too far.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: The RSI is nearing overbought territory, signaling a potential correction. It’s currently around 65, suggesting that while momentum is still bullish, a reversal could be near.
- MACD: Bullish but flattening, indicating the momentum may be fading, opening up the possibility for a bearish retracement.
- Candlestick Pattern: A Bearish Pin Bar has formed on the 4-hour chart, indicating strong seller interest and a potential for downside movement.
Trading Strategy:
- Bearish Setup: Enter short positions below 195.85, targeting 193.30 with a stop-loss above 199.48. This setup capitalizes on a potential bearish correction before the broader bullish trend resumes.
Upcoming Event Impact:
- BoE’s Dhingra Speech: Any dovish comments from the Bank of England regarding future interest rate hikes could weigh on GBP, leading to further declines in GBP/JPY.
- JPY Economic Data: Weak data from Japan’s economic releases could limit the downside movement of GBP/JPY, as JPY would weaken. However, if Japanese economic figures surprise to the upside, it could further drive GBP/JPY lower.
USD/CHF
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Price Action Setup: USD/CHF may continue its bearish retracement towards 1st support at 0.8530. The price has stalled near pivot at 0.8617, where selling pressure has increased.
- Pivot Point: 0.8617 – An overlap resistance with 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, likely capping any upward attempts.
- 1st Support: 0.8530 – Overlap support where buyers may enter the market if the price declines.
- 1st Resistance: 0.8692 – This overlap resistance may act as a key barrier if the price attempts to rise.
Technical Indicators:
- MACD: Bearish divergence on the daily chart suggests weakening bullish momentum.
- RSI: Currently at 45, indicating bearish momentum.
- Candlestick Pattern: Bearish pin bar on the daily chart, confirming seller control at resistance.
Upcoming Event Impact:
- USD PPI (Sep) data will influence USD/CHF. A stronger USD from inflation data could cap any potential bearish retracement.
USD/JPY
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Price Action Setup: USD/JPY may retrace towards 1st support at 147.11 after failing to break the pivot at 149.32. The price remains elevated but shows signs of exhaustion.
- Pivot Point: 149.32 – Multi-swing high resistance supported by the 161.80% Fibonacci extension, suggesting potential for a reversal.
- 1st Support: 147.11 – A pullback support level where buyers could return if the price declines.
- 1st Resistance: 151.99 – This level could see significant selling pressure if the price attempts to rise further.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: Near 70, signaling overbought conditions and potential for a correction.
- MACD: Still bullish, but momentum is fading.
- Candlestick Pattern: Bearish pin bar on the 4-hour chart confirms potential for a bearish reversal.
Upcoming Event Impact:
- JPY Economic Data: Industrial production and utilization data could drive USD/JPY. Weak Japanese data could limit downside movement.
USD/CAD
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Price Action Setup: USD/CAD is poised for a bullish continuation towards 1st resistance at 1.3793 after a recent bounce from pivot support at 1.3729.
- Pivot Point: 1.3729 – This pullback support is reinforced by 50% Fibonacci retracement, signaling the potential for more upside.
- 1st Support: 1.3674 – Overlap support where buyers may re-enter the market.
- 1st Resistance: 1.3793 – The 161.80% Fibonacci extension level, marking a potential target for bullish movement.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: Above 60, signaling continued bullish strength.
- MACD: Bullish crossover supports further upside.
- Candlestick Pattern: Morning Star on the daily chart indicates a continuation of the bullish trend.
Upcoming Event Impact:
- CAD Employment Data (Sep): Weak employment data could weaken the CAD, supporting further gains in USD/CAD.
AUD/USD
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Price Action Setup: AUD/USD is showing signs of a bearish continuation, especially if it reverses from the pivot at 0.6767 and moves toward 1st support at 0.6715. The pair has been in a downtrend, and any attempt to rise has met strong resistance.
- Pivot Point: 0.6767 – This level aligns closely with the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement, making it a key pullback resistance area where selling pressure could intensify.
- 1st Support: 0.6715 – This is a multi-swing low support, suggesting that buyers may temporarily slow the decline at this level. However, a break below this could open further downside.
- 1st Resistance: 0.6811 – Identified as an overlap resistance close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, this level could cap any bullish attempts if the price rises.
Technical Indicators:
- MACD: A bearish crossover on the daily chart supports the continuation of the downtrend.
- RSI: Below 40, confirming that the pair is in bearish territory.
- Candlestick Pattern: Bearish Engulfing on the 4-hour chart indicates that the sellers are firmly in control.
Trading Strategy:
- Bearish Setup: Enter short positions below 0.6767, targeting 0.6715 with a stop-loss above 0.6811.
Upcoming Event Impact:
- USD Producer Price Index (MoM): If inflation surprises to the upside, expect stronger USD gains and further downside for AUD/USD as rate hike expectations for the Fed increase.
NZD/USD
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Price Action Setup: NZD/USD is poised for further downside after hitting resistance at pivot 0.6114, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. The pair is likely to head toward the 1st support at 0.6050, continuing its downtrend.
- Pivot Point: 0.6114 – This level acts as pullback resistance, where sellers may step in to push the price lower.
- 1st Support: 0.6050 – This is a critical swing-low support where buying interest may temporarily emerge. However, a breach of this level could accelerate the downtrend.
- 1st Resistance: 0.6163 – This level aligns with the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement and could act as a strong resistance if price attempts a retracement.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: Below 40, signaling strong bearish momentum.
- MACD: Bearish crossover supports continued downside.
- Candlestick Pattern: Bearish Harami on the daily chart further supports the potential for more downside.
Trading Strategy:
- Bearish Setup: Enter short positions below 0.6114, targeting 0.6050 with a stop-loss above 0.6163.
Upcoming Event Impact:
- USD PPI (MoM) and USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Strong USD data could push NZD lower, especially if risk-off sentiment takes hold.
US30 (DJIA)
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Neutral
- Price Action Setup: The US30 is approaching the pivot at 42,654.55, where a bearish reversal is expected. If the price reverses from this level, it may head toward the 1st support at 42,395.55. The price has been struggling to make a clear direction, but the recent price action indicates potential selling pressure near resistance.
- Pivot Point: 42,654.55 – This is a swing-high resistance near the all-time high, suggesting strong selling pressure around this level.
- 1st Support: 42,395.55 – Overlap support aligns with the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement, where price may find temporary support.
- 1st Resistance: 42,879.13 – A critical resistance level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, suggesting this level could see strong selling pressure.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: Approaching overbought territory near 70, indicating potential for a bearish reversal.
- MACD: Bullish, but momentum is fading, suggesting limited upside.
- Candlestick Pattern: Bearish Pin Bar on the daily chart signals potential for a reversal from the current levels.
Trading Strategy:
- Bearish Setup: Consider short positions below 42,654.55, targeting 42,395.55 with a stop above 42,879.13.
Upcoming Event Impact:
- USD PPI (MoM) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: If the data supports stronger USD and weaker economic growth expectations, US30 may see downside as investors shift to risk-off sentiment.
US500 (S&P 500)
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Neutral
- Price Action Setup: The S&P 500 (US500) is approaching the pivot at 5,767.00, and a potential bullish bounce could push the price towards the 1st resistance at 5,823.13. Despite recent volatility, there is potential for the index to rise, driven by investor optimism.
- Pivot Point: 5,767.00 – Acts as a key overlap support level, aligning with the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement. A bounce from here could lead to bullish momentum.
- 1st Support: 5,739.20 – This level acts as a pullback support aligned with the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement, where price may find a temporary floor before resuming its upward move.
- 1st Resistance: 5,823.13 – Key resistance level that aligns with the 161.80% Fibonacci extension, where the price might encounter significant selling pressure.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: Neutral, hovering around 50, indicating that the index is balanced and could break either way.
- MACD: Slight bullish divergence, suggesting that momentum is shifting to the upside.
- Candlestick Pattern: A recent Bullish Harami pattern on the 4-hour chart suggests a possible bullish continuation.
Trading Strategy:
- Bullish Setup: Enter long positions above 5,767.00, targeting 5,823.13 with a stop-loss below 5,739.20. This setup capitalizes on the potential for a bullish bounce off the pivot level.
Upcoming Event Impact:
- USD PPI (Sep) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Oct) could influence market sentiment. If inflation pressures are softer and sentiment is strong, the S&P 500 could push higher as risk appetite improves.
DE40 (DAX)
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum: Bullish
- Price Action Setup: DE40 (DAX) could see further upside as the price has found support at the pivot level of 19,182.10, with potential to move toward 1st resistance at 19,446.30. The overall trend is bullish, and buyers are likely to push the price higher, especially if positive European data supports growth.
- Pivot Point: 19,182.10 – This level aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, acting as strong pullback support.
- 1st Support: 18,949.40 – A multi-swing-low support where buyers may enter if price moves lower.
- 1st Resistance: 19,446.30 – Swing-high resistance marked by confluence from two 161.8% Fibonacci extensions, suggesting sellers may step in at this level.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: Above 55, signaling bullish momentum.
- MACD: Bullish crossover supports further upside.
- Candlestick Pattern: Bullish Engulfing on the 4-hour chart confirms buyer strength.
Trading Strategy:
- Bullish Setup: Enter long positions above 19,182.10, targeting 19,446.30 with a stop below 18,949.40.
Upcoming Event Impact:
- EUR Current Account (Aug): A stronger-than-expected surplus could push the DAX higher, with a positive growth outlook for the eurozone.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Technical Indicators (continued):
- RSI: Below 50, indicating that bearish momentum is still strong and the asset is not yet oversold.
- MACD: A bearish crossover has occurred, suggesting more downside potential for Bitcoin in the near term.
- Candlestick Pattern: A Bearish Engulfing pattern on the daily chart confirms sellers’ control, supporting the outlook for further declines.
Trading Strategy:
- Bearish Setup: Traders should consider entering short positions below 61,155.46, with a target at 57,861.43. A stop-loss can be placed above 63,633.89 to protect against any potential bullish reversal.
Upcoming Event Impact:
- USD Producer Price Index (PPI) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will influence broader risk sentiment, which could further weigh on Bitcoin if the USD strengthens due to stronger-than-expected inflation data. Crypto markets tend to react negatively to a risk-off environment, which could lead to more selling pressure in BTC/USD.
ETH/USD (Ethereum)
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Neutral
- Price Action Setup: ETH/USD appears ready for a bearish reversal after reaching pivot resistance at 2,420.58. If the price fails to break above this level, the next move is likely to be a retracement towards the 1st support at 2,338.65.
- Pivot Point: 2,420.58 – This overlap resistance aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating that this level could serve as a strong resistance where selling pressure intensifies.
- 1st Support: 2,338.65 – A swing-low support level that could provide a temporary floor if the price declines.
- 1st Resistance: 2,493.39 – Pullback resistance at this level, close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where bulls may struggle to break higher.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: The RSI hovers around 45, indicating that the momentum is bearish but not extreme.
- MACD: Bearish crossover suggests downside potential, with a weakening momentum on the upside.
- Candlestick Pattern: Bearish Pin Bar on the 4-hour chart suggests that bulls are losing control, and bears may push the price lower.
Trading Strategy:
- Bearish Setup: Traders may consider short positions below 2,420.58, targeting 2,338.65 with a stop-loss above 2,493.39.
Upcoming Event Impact:
- Ethereum may be affected by broader macroeconomic sentiment, especially influenced by USD PPI and other key economic data. If risk-off sentiment prevails, ETH/USD could decline as investors move away from riskier assets.
WTI/USD (Oil)
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Neutral
- Price Action Setup: WTI Crude Oil could potentially make a bearish reversal from the pivot at 77.72, falling towards the 1st support at 74.61. Oil prices have struggled to maintain gains, and recent selling pressure suggests that the downside may resume.
- Pivot Point: 77.72 – This multi-swing high resistance is a critical level, where selling pressure could increase. If the price reverses from here, a move lower toward the support zone is likely.
- 1st Support: 74.61 – A pullback support level that aligns with previous swing lows, where buyers may attempt to defend the price.
- 1st Resistance: 80.29 – Swing-high resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, where strong selling pressure could emerge if the price rises.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: Currently near 50, indicating neutral momentum but showing signs of weakening.
- MACD: The MACD histogram shows signs of decreasing bullish momentum, hinting at a potential reversal.
- Candlestick Pattern: Bearish Engulfing on the 4-hour chart suggests sellers may be taking control after recent upward attempts.
Trading Strategy:
- Bearish Setup: Consider short positions below 77.72, targeting 74.61 with a stop-loss above 80.29.
Upcoming Event Impact:
- WTI could be impacted by the Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count, which will provide insights into US oil production levels. A higher-than-expected rig count could weigh on prices as supply concerns increase.
XAU/USD (Gold)
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum: Bearish
- Price Action Setup: XAU/USD (Gold) remains bearish as it moves away from the pivot at 2,638.41, heading towards the 1st support at 2,606.95. The precious metal continues to face selling pressure due to the strong USD and risk-off sentiment.
- Pivot Point: 2,638.41 – This level aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and serves as a key resistance area, where the price may struggle to break higher.
- 1st Support: 2,606.95 – A multi-swing low support, where the price may find temporary buying interest before continuing lower.
- 1st Resistance: 2,672.18 – A swing-high resistance area that may limit any bullish attempts to break higher.
Technical Indicators:
- RSI: Below 50, indicating that bearish sentiment remains intact.
- MACD: The MACD has crossed into negative territory, confirming that downward momentum is increasing.
- Candlestick Pattern: Bearish Engulfing on the daily chart supports the view that selling pressure will continue.
Trading Strategy:
- Bearish Setup: Enter short positions below 2,638.41, targeting 2,606.95 with a stop-loss above 2,672.18.
Upcoming Event Impact:
- Gold prices will likely react to the USD PPI and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. If inflation pressures persist, the Federal Reserve may continue its tightening, leading to a stronger USD and weaker gold prices.
Final Thoughts
The technical outlook for Friday, October 11th, 2024, indicates a variety of trading opportunities across forex pairs, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. Key economic data, including the USD Producer Price Index (PPI) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, will likely drive market sentiment and impact asset prices. Traders should monitor these events closely, as stronger-than-expected data could strengthen the USD and pressure riskier assets such as gold and Bitcoin.
By combining technical setups, indicators, and economic calendar events, this analysis provides a comprehensive view of potential price movements in the markets.
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