The Canadian Dollar Continues to Slide Against the Greenback
- The Canadian Dollar backslid another tenth of a percent against the Greenback.
- Despite upbeat labor data from Canada, markets deferred to the US Dollar.
- US PPI inflation cooled to flat in September, but core PPI remains an issue.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) fell against the Greenback for an eighth consecutive trading day as markets pivot out of the Loonie in favor of the US Dollar. US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation cooled more than expected in September, but markets noted that core PPI inflation still ticked higher for the annualized period.
Canada’s labor print did little to bolster the CAD, despite new jobs data nearly doubling forecasts. Canada’s Unemployment Rate also ticked down, flaunting market expectations of another move higher. With the Bank of Canada (BoC) broadly expected to deliver another 50 bps rate cut at its next policy meeting later in the month, markets have little reason to bid up the CAD. The Loonie is now poised for its worst week against the Greenback since March of 2023.
Daily Digest: Market Movers
- Canada added 46.7K net new jobs in September, nearly double the median market forecast of 27K, compared to August’s 22.1K.
- Canada’s Unemployment Rate also ticked down to 6.5% from 6.6%, reversing the expected uptick to 6.7%.
- Despite upbeat labor figures, the BoC is still expected to cut rates by another 50 bps on October 23.
- US PPI inflation flatted in September, cooling to a flat 0.0% MoM compared to the expected 0.1% and August’s 0.2%.
- September’s YoY PPI print chilled less than expected, printing at 1.8% versus the expected 1.6%, but still came in under August’s revised print of 1.9%.
- Core PPI inflation, excluding food and energy prices, actually rose to 2.8% YoY in September, over and above the anticipated 2.7%. August’s annualized PPI figure was also revised to 2.6% from the initial print of 2.4%.
Canadian Dollar Price Forecast
The USD/CAD currency pair continued its recent upward momentum, closing at 1.3762, up 0.15% for the day. The pair has rallied sharply over the past week, recovering from September’s lows near 1.3400. As seen in the chart, the price action is well above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3605 and the 200-day EMA at 1.3612, indicating a shift toward a more bullish outlook. The pair broke above these key moving averages at the beginning of October, confirming a breakout from the downtrend that had dominated throughout August and September.
Momentum indicators support the recent bullish reversal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned positive, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line. The histogram is steadily increasing, showing growing bullish momentum. With MACD readings now in positive territory, the outlook suggests that further gains are likely in the near term, with the next key resistance level around 1.3800, a psychological and technical barrier that traders are likely to monitor closely.
However, the recent rally has left the pair overextended in the short term, as indicated by the rapid pace of gains over the last few sessions. A pullback to test the 50-day EMA or the 1.3650 level could be possible before the pair attempts to break higher. Overall, the trend appears to have shifted in favor of the USD, but traders should keep an eye on upcoming economic data and any signs of exhaustion in the bullish momentum to manage potential volatility.
USD/CAD Daily Chart
Canadian Dollar FAQs
- The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are:
- The level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC)
- The price of Oil, Canada’s largest export
- The health of its economy
- Inflation and the Trade Balance
- Market sentiment
- The Bank of Canada (BoC) influences the Canadian Dollar through:
- Setting interest rates
- Adjusting inflation
- Using quantitative easing and tightening
- The price of Oil impacts the Canadian Dollar by:
- Affecting Canada’s largest export
- Influencing aggregate demand for the currency
- Inflation affects the Canadian Dollar by:
- Leading to adjustments in interest rates
- Attracting capital inflows
- Macroeconomic data releases that impact the Canadian Dollar include:
- GDP
- Manufacturing and Services PMIs
- Employment data
- Consumer sentiment surveys