Citigroup Raises Bull Case for Oil Prices Amid Potential Middle East Supply Disruption
Citigroup has increased its bullish outlook for oil prices, citing the possibility of supply disruptions in the Middle East. The US bank maintains its baseline forecast but has raised its bull case scenario for the fourth quarter of 2024 and first quarter of 2025.
According to Citigroup, there is a heightened potential for the market to fear or realize supply losses in the coming months, similar to events in 2022. The bank’s analysts point to potential scenarios such as attacks on refineries, disruptions in oil and liquids supply, and impacts on oil flows through key routes like the Strait of Hormuz.
In response to these risks, Citigroup has adjusted its bull case scenario for oil prices to $120/bbl, with an increased indicative probability. However, the bank also considers a bear scenario where OPEC+ raises production and supply risks decrease, leading to lower prices.
As of 05:50 ET, Brent crude was trading 4.9% lower at $73.66 a barrel.
Analysis:
Citigroup’s revised outlook for oil prices reflects the potential impact of supply disruptions in the Middle East on global markets. Investors should monitor geopolitical events in the region that could trigger price fluctuations. The bank’s scenarios provide a range of possible outcomes, highlighting the need for risk management strategies in oil investments.