EUR/USD Depreciates Ahead of ECB Meeting
EUR/USD saw a 0.2% decrease to 1.0893 prior to the European Central Bank meeting, according to DBS’ FX analyst Philip Wee.
Factors Affecting EUR/USD
- Drop in Eurozone’s CPI inflation to 1.8% YoY in September
- Expected 25 bps rate cut by ECB
- Potential ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ scenario
It is important to consider that the Eurozone’s core inflation remains above the ECB’s 2% target, standing at 2.7% YoY in September. Additionally, economic sentiment has improved with the ZEW survey expectations reaching a six-month high of 20.1 in October after a few months of decline.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD has experienced a 2.2% depreciation this month, surpassing all monthly losses in the year. The 100-week moving average has been a strong support for the EUR since November 2023, currently around 1.0825. If the ECB decides on a rate cut, it may not opt for another cut in December, especially with expectations for two Fed cuts in November and December looming.
Analyzing the Current Situation
As a top investment manager, it is crucial to monitor the upcoming ECB meeting and its potential impact on EUR/USD. With economic indicators pointing towards a rate cut, investors should be prepared for market fluctuations. Keeping an eye on core inflation and economic sentiment can provide valuable insights into future market movements.
By understanding the technical analysis of EUR/USD and the possible scenarios post-ECB meeting, investors can make informed decisions to safeguard their investments and capitalize on opportunities in the foreign exchange market.