Oil prices are on the rise, with a weekly gain of over 1%, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and ongoing ceasefire talks in Gaza. Brent futures rose by 0.4% to $74.69 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to $70.48 a barrel, up 0.4%.
Market analyst Tony Sycamore believes that the current price of oil, around $70, is appropriate as traders await key events such as China’s NPC Standing Committee meeting and Israel’s response to Iran’s recent missile attack.
Recent fluctuations in oil prices have been influenced by expectations of increased or decreased tensions in the Middle East, particularly in response to Iran’s missile attack on October 1. Israel’s potential retaliation could impact oil infrastructure and supplies.
Ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Israel, aimed at resolving the conflict in Gaza and securing the release of hostages, are set to resume. The outcome of these talks could have implications for oil prices, although Sycamore believes that the focus remains on the situation in Lebanon and Israel’s response to Iran.
Meanwhile, investors are monitoring Beijing’s stimulus policies, with Goldman Sachs maintaining its forecasts for oil, gas, and coal prices. The bank expects modest boosts to energy prices from Chinese stimulus measures, but major drivers such as oil supply from the Middle East and winter weather for natural gas are expected to have a greater impact.
Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent prices to range between $70 and $85 in 2025, providing investors with a long-term outlook for the oil market.
Overall, geopolitical tensions, ceasefire negotiations, and stimulus measures in China are key factors influencing oil prices in the short and long term. Traders should remain vigilant and stay informed about these developments to make informed investment decisions.