Global Markets Overview: Mixed Performance Amid Geopolitical Risks and Data Revisions

  • Global markets experienced a mixed week, influenced by geopolitical risks and revisions to US jobs data.
  • Key events in the upcoming week include China’s Standing Committee meeting, the US election, and Central Bank Meetings.
  • Wall Street indexes faced struggles, potentially due to high valuations and increased AI capital spending.

Week in Review: US Jobs Revised Downward After Positive GDP

The past week saw a mix of market movements as geopolitical risks resurfaced and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down numbers once again. Additionally, US Earnings results brought a mix of surprises and disappointments, with Wall Street showing concerns over growing AI capital expenditure.

Despite some companies reporting revenue and profit beats, the increasing capital expenditure in AI continued to be a point of concern for market participants. Notably, Amazon saw a significant surge on Friday, boosting Wall Street indexes after a rough Q2 earnings report.

However, the NFP report painted a less positive picture as revisions to the last two months’ data showed a downward trend. This has implications on future rate cuts, potentially altering market expectations moving forward.

Commodities experienced a slight upward trend throughout the week, with gold reaching new highs before a slight drop on Thursday. The uncertain geopolitical landscape adds complexity to market movements.

Wall Street indexes faced challenges throughout the week, potentially impacted by high valuations and ongoing geopolitical risks.

The Week Ahead: China’s Standing Committee Meeting, US Election, and Central Bank Meetings

Asia Pacific Markets

Focus in Asia shifts to China next week, with the Standing Committee meeting of the National People’s Congress taking center stage. Market watchers are keen to see potential changes to budget targets and financial plans, providing insights into future economic strategies.

Japan and Australia also have key events next week, with data releases and interest rate meetings shaping market sentiments.

Europe + UK + US

European markets are anticipating retail sales data and ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speeches for policy insights. In the UK, reactions to the Autumn Budget and the upcoming BoE meeting create an interesting dynamic for the Pound.

In the US, the upcoming election and FOMC meeting are critical events. The recent data revisions have solidified expectations for rate cuts, with uncertainties surrounding the election adding further complexity to market movements.

Analysis

The global markets have been navigating through a mix of geopolitical risks, data revisions, and high valuations, creating a challenging environment for investors. The downward revisions in US jobs data and uncertainties surrounding the upcoming US election have added layers of complexity to market sentiments.

Investors should pay close attention to key events such as China’s Standing Committee meeting, Central Bank Meetings, and the US election to gauge the future trajectory of markets. Additionally, factors like AI capital spending, geopolitical tensions, and commodity movements can significantly impact investment decisions.

Understanding these market dynamics and being prepared for potential shifts in policies and economic strategies is crucial for investors to navigate through the ever-changing global financial landscape.

Investment Manager Insights: The Impact of a Trump Win on Gold Prices

As the world eagerly awaits the outcome of the upcoming election, market participants are bracing themselves for potential upheavals in various asset classes. One such asset that could see significant movement is Gold, often considered a safe haven in times of uncertainty. Here’s what to expect if Trump emerges victorious:

Gold Price Movement

  • Gold prices could benefit from a Trump win, as investors may flock to the precious metal as a hedge against looming uncertainties.
  • Expect wild swings in US Dollar pairs and Wall Street Indexes, with a ripple effect across global markets as risk sentiment fluctuates.

Chart of the Week: Gold’s Rollercoaster Ride

This week, all eyes are on Gold, which experienced fresh highs followed by a significant pullback in a turbulent market environment.

Factors Driving Gold Prices

  • Global uncertainties continue to mount, providing support for further increases in Gold prices.
  • The $2800 handle remains a key level to watch, with potential for bulls to make a final attempt at breaching this mark.
  • A move higher could bring $2750 and $2775 into focus, while a downward trajectory may target $2724, $2714, and $2700.
  • The RSI indicator suggests a shift in momentum as it moves away from overbought levels, but geopolitical developments could sway market sentiment over the weekend.

Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart – November 1, 2024

Source: TradingView.Com

Key Levels to Consider:

Support: $2724, $2714, $2700

Resistance: $2750, $2775, $2800

As an award-winning investment manager and financial journalist, I urge investors to stay vigilant and monitor market movements closely in the coming days. The outcome of the election could have a profound impact on Gold prices and other financial instruments, making it crucial to stay informed and adaptable in these uncertain times.

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