As the world eagerly anticipates the results of the US election, oil prices have remained relatively stable. The market is on edge as the outcome is expected to be a close race. With ICE settling above $75/bbl, a weaker USD is providing some support to the market. However, oil remains vulnerable to broader market movements as the election unfolds.
If Trump secures a victory, we may see a short-term boost in oil prices due to the potential for stricter sanctions against Iran. On the other hand, a Trump win could have a bearish long-term impact on oil prices. In contrast, a Harris victory would likely maintain the status quo.
Furthermore, a decision by OPEC+ to delay their supply increase, along with potential disruptions in the US Gulf of Mexico due to Tropical Storm Rafael, are also factors supporting oil prices. In the refined products sector, middle distillates are strengthening, with the ICE gasoil crack trading at its highest level since early September.
Analysis:
With the uncertainty surrounding the US election and its potential impact on oil prices, investors should closely monitor the outcome and be prepared for short-term fluctuations. A Trump victory could lead to initial gains, while a Harris win may bring stability to the market. Additionally, factors such as OPEC+ decisions and supply disruptions should be taken into consideration when making investment decisions in the oil sector.