Gold Market Analysis: The Impact of Trump’s Victory on Gold Prices
- Gold Declines: Trump’s win reduces political risk, shifting focus to potential inflationary policies.
- US Dollar Recovery: Despite lower Treasury yields, the Greenback’s recovery exerts pressure on Bullion.
- Powell’s Signals: Gradual rate adjustments leave the Fed’s future path open amidst economic strength.
Market Overview
Gold prices experienced a decline on Friday as the US Dollar staged a recovery despite falling Treasury yields. Traders are digesting Donald Trump’s victory in the US election, reducing exposure on the “Trump trade” due to uncertainty over tariffs. XAU/USD trades at $2,688, down over 0.67%.
US equities extended gains, shrugging off election jitters that previously drove Bullion’s advance. With reduced risk over US politics, market participants are now focusing on Trump’s potential policies.
US Dollar and Fed Policies
Following Trump’s victory, the US Dollar strengthened as investors anticipate a less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed). Some of Trump’s policies are viewed as inflation-prone, which may put pressure on the US central bank.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a gradual approach to rate adjustments, keeping the Fed’s future path open amidst a strong economy. Powell emphasized the need to bring rates to neutral levels, with policy remaining restrictive even after the recent rate cut.
US Economic Data and Future Outlook
The release of the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment for November exceeded October’s final reading, reflecting mixed views on inflation expectations in the short and long term among Americans.
Next week’s US economic docket will influence Gold’s trajectory, with a focus on Federal Reserve officials’ comments and key data releases on consumer and producer inflation, as well as retail sales.
Market Movers: Gold Price Slumps as Data Boosts the Greenback
- Gold prices decline as US real yields rebound, impacting Bullion negatively.
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) rallies 0.70% to 105.09, pressuring Gold despite lower Treasury yields.
- UoM Consumer Sentiment for November shows a 3.5% increase, with inflation expectations fluctuating.
- Investors expect around 24.5 basis points of Fed easing by year-end based on fed funds futures.
XAU/USD Technical Outlook: Gold Price Analysis
Gold price retreats from a peak near $2,700, facing resistance at crucial levels. Sellers may target $2,650 if prices fall below recent lows, while buyers aim to surpass $2,700 and target higher levels.
Momentum remains neutral as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a lack of clear direction for XAU/USD.
Gold FAQs
Gold has historical significance as a store of value and safe-haven asset. Central banks hold significant Gold reserves to bolster their currencies and economies during turbulent times. Gold’s price movement is influenced by factors like the US Dollar, Treasury yields, and geopolitical instability.