Trump’s Victory: Beyond Inflation

The Impact of Trump’s Victory on the Economy: A Comprehensive Analysis

Outlet after outlet has quickly diagnosed Trump’s victory: it’s the economy, stupid.

The Washington Post sardonically cited the Manhattan Institute’s Brian Riedl: “It turns out voters really dislike inflation.”

We can expect months of haughty analysis about inflation in the United States, and probably another round of it after the 2025 Australian election, no matter the result.

Australia’s political and institutional classes are sharpening their teeth for the inflation tussle as our own federal election nears.

Albanese is talking up the September inflation figures returning to the RBA’s target 2-3% band. Dutton is shouting from the sidelines about IMF inflation predictions for 2025.

But what is not on the political agenda is any serious reassessment of Australia’s broken wages system and the ability of workers to take action to increase their pay

The Problem with Consumer Prices

The problems with the consumer price index are well known: its exclusion of mortgage payments, a constantly changing basket of goods, and a non-intuitive flow measure obscuring cumulative changes to affordability.

But it’s the “consumer” part rather than the price index part that gets us most lost. A fixation on inflation leaves out where most families in Australia get their income from: their wages.

It is striking that in line with Harris’ ill-fated promises to consumers, both Albanese and Dutton have presented their own meagre proposals to stop price gouging of the supermarkets.

They are tackling the cost of living crisis as a consumer issue. They are operating within the inflation-fixation of the neoliberal mainstream.

Workers Going Backwards

Workers’ wage levels paint a much graver picture. On the RBA’s CPI predictions, workers will not get back to 2011 levels until 2026. That gets worse if we include mortgages.

Nurses and midwives are worse off than in January 2024. Workers at Sydney Trains haven’t seen real wages this low since 2012.

For a worker sitting at the bottom end of that graph, all the touted cost of living relief looks pale. Albanese’s $300 energy rebate or tweaks to HECS or tax cuts are barely going to register.

These are minor tweaks around what is rightly called a cost of living crisis.

These workers are not simply waiting to punt at the next election as to who might throw a couple of meagre allowances their way.

Sydney Trains workers are currently demanding 8% per year over four years and are threatening network disruptions over the coming months to win it.

Nurses and midwives are on strike this Wednesday, demanding a 15% increase to catch up with lost wages.

The biggest economic risk for Australian workers is that these campaigns become isolated and accept the minor pay rises currently being offered by NSW Premier Chris Minns.

A far more useful use of our time than pontificating about inflation and Trump would be to send our solidarity to the nurses, midwives, and train workers currently campaigning against the crisis, or to construction workers stripped of the democratic right to elect their own leadership.

Industrial Relations and the Right to Strike

Perhaps we can all agree that it is the economy, stupid; the question is what to do about it.

The media is debating whether Albanese has got the balance right, not unlike the debates over Biden in the US. Greg Jericho argues Albo’s cost of living relief has worked. SMH economics editor Ross Gittins says cost of living is “the one thing” we can’t blame Albanese for, while the AFR’s Phillip Coorey is more circumspect about whether people feel better off than three years ago.

Coorey’s assessment looks more on the money. But changing that will need more than meagre tweaks, but rather questioning the laws governing strikes. Australia has some of the most restrictive rules surrounding the right to strike in the developed world.

Strikes in solidarity with other workers or over political issues are banned entirely. Strikes over local economic conditions are lawful only in the period after the expiry of an agreement. Even then, unions need to run Protected Action Ballots, often costing thousands of dollars, to ensure that a majority of their members vote, with a majority in favour of any proposed action. There are innumerable more hoops that it would be tedious to outline.

Such laws cripple workers’ ability to stand against roaring inflation, and workers’ ability to combine across industries to challenge the decision-makers (in this case, the NSW government). Nurses sit outside these laws, but can still face heavy penalties for defying their own industrial court.

Until the right to strike is on the agenda, rather than the measly cost of living adjustments currently up for debate, wages will stagnate and fall. As will the vote of the major parties who

Conclusion

In conclusion, the economy remains a critical factor in political landscapes worldwide, as evidenced by Trump’s victory and the upcoming Australian election. While inflation garners significant attention, the focus on consumer prices neglects the root issue of stagnant wages for Australian workers. Urgent action is needed to address the broken wages system and empower workers to demand fair pay increases. Additionally, restrictive laws surrounding the right to strike hinder workers’ ability to advocate for better wages, perpetuating the cost of living crisis. It is imperative for policymakers to prioritize meaningful reforms that address these systemic issues to ensure economic stability and prosperity for all Australians.

FAQs

1. How are Australian workers impacted by stagnant wages?
   Australian workers are facing a significant decline in real wages, with some groups not expected to reach 2011 wage levels until 2026. This decline, coupled with rising inflation, exacerbates the cost of living crisis and highlights the urgent need for wage reform.

2. Why is the right to strike crucial for Australian workers?
   The right to strike is essential for Australian workers to advocate for fair wages and working conditions. Current laws restrict workers’ ability to strike, undermining their bargaining power and perpetuating stagnant wages. Reforms are needed to protect workers’ rights and promote economic equality. Title: The Rise of E-Commerce During the Pandemic: A Deep Dive into the Online Shopping Boom

   Introduction:
   As the world grapples with the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, one industry has experienced unprecedented growth – e-commerce. With lockdowns and social distancing measures in place, consumers are turning to online shopping more than ever before. In this article, we will explore the reasons behind the surge in e-commerce during the pandemic and examine the long-term implications for the retail sector.

   The Impact of COVID-19 on E-Commerce

   Shift in Consumer Behavior

   • The pandemic has forced consumers to shift their shopping habits from brick-and-mortar stores to online platforms.
   • Fear of contracting the virus has driven more people to opt for the convenience and safety of shopping online.

     Rise of Online Grocery Shopping

   • Online grocery shopping has seen a significant increase, with many consumers opting for home delivery or curbside pickup to avoid crowded stores.
   • Major retailers have ramped up their e-commerce capabilities to meet the surge in demand for online grocery shopping.

     Challenges and Opportunities for E-Commerce Businesses

     Supply Chain Disruptions

   • E-commerce businesses have faced challenges in managing their supply chains due to disruptions caused by the pandemic.
   • Shortages of essential goods and delays in shipping have impacted the ability of online retailers to meet customer demand.

     Opportunities for Growth

   • Despite the challenges, e-commerce businesses have also seen opportunities for growth during the pandemic.
   • Many consumers who have tried online shopping for the first time are likely to continue using e-commerce even after the pandemic ends.

     The Future of Retail: A Digital Transformation

   • The pandemic has accelerated the shift towards digital retail, with traditional retailers investing more in e-commerce capabilities.
   • Retailers are embracing technologies such as artificial intelligence and augmented reality to enhance the online shopping experience for customers.

     Conclusion:
     The COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped the retail landscape, driving a surge in e-commerce that is likely to have long-lasting effects. As consumers become more accustomed to the convenience of online shopping, retailers will need to adapt to meet changing expectations. The future of retail is digital, and e-commerce businesses that can innovate and provide a seamless shopping experience will thrive in the post-pandemic world.

     FAQs

     Q: How has the pandemic impacted online shopping trends?
     A: The pandemic has led to a significant increase in online shopping as consumers seek safer and more convenient ways to make purchases.

     Q: What are some challenges e-commerce businesses have faced during the pandemic?
     A: E-commerce businesses have faced challenges such as supply chain disruptions and increased demand for online shopping.

     Q: What technologies are retailers using to enhance the online shopping experience?
     A: Retailers are leveraging technologies such as artificial intelligence and augmented reality to provide a more immersive and personalized shopping experience for customers.