EUR/USD Forecast: Potential for Further Decline Below 1.06
EUR/USD is facing strong downward pressure due to a broad USD rally, with the possibility of dropping below the key level of 1.06 if the US core CPI data exceeds expectations, according to ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole.
Factors Driving EUR/USD Movement
- Short-term fair value level is at 1.060 based on rate differentials
- USD:EUR two-year swap rate gap is widening rapidly, currently at 185bp
- Market expectations of ECB rate cuts exceeding those of the Fed
- Potential for a 50bp cut by the ECB in December
Market Outlook
Despite possible short-term corrections, the overall trend for EUR/USD remains bearish, with a year-end target of 1.04. The eurozone economic calendar is quiet, so US news will be the main driver for the pair’s movement.
Expert Analysis
According to Pesole, the market is underestimating the potential for significant ECB rate cuts, which could impact the currency pair’s trajectory. While some short-term upward corrections are possible, the overall direction favors a weaker EUR/USD.