The Impact of USD Strength on EUR/USD Pair
EUR/USD hit new yearly lows in the 1.0550 region on Wednesday as the rally in the US Dollar continued unabated, approaching 2024 highs. This movement was largely driven by investor optimism surrounding potential economic policies under the incoming Trump administration, known as the “Trump trade”.
Factors Contributing to USD Strength:
- Investor optimism around potential economic policies under the incoming Trump administration
- Gains in US yields in the belly and long end of the curve
- Germany’s 10-year bund yields surpassing the 2.40% level
Key Policy Updates:
- The Federal Reserve cut the Fed Funds Target Rate (FFTR) by 25 basis points, aligning with expectations
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious about the December policy decision due to ongoing economic uncertainties
- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expresses optimism about inflation trends, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan urges caution regarding future interest rate cuts
European Central Bank’s Response:
The ECB cut its deposit rate to 3.25% on October 17 but is adopting a wait-and-see stance before deciding on additional measures, focusing on upcoming economic data.
Implications for the Future:
- The new Trump administration’s potential trade policies could drive inflation higher in the US
- If the Fed leans towards a more cautious or hawkish approach, scaling back on rate hikes, it might provide additional support for the US Dollar
Analysis of US Inflation Data
The US inflation data showed the headline CPI rose by 2.6% in the year to October and 3.3% YoY when measured by the core CPI, excluding food and energy costs. This data, combined with the strength of the US Dollar, has had a significant impact on the EUR/USD pair.
Speculators’ Sentiment Shift:
Net short positions in the euro have decreased, while hedge funds and commercial traders have also trimmed their net longs slightly. This cautious sentiment is reflected in the market dynamics as open interest edged lower.
EUR/USD Short-Term Technical Outlook
Extra losses may push the EUR/USD down to its 2024 low of 1.0555, ahead of further support levels at 1.0516 and 1.0448. The 200-day SMA of 1.0866 provides immediate resistance, with further resistance at the November peak of 1.0936.
The four-hour chart indicates a downward trend with initial support levels at 1.0555 and 1.0516. On the upside, resistance levels are at 1.0726 and 1.0824, with the RSI falling to about 25.