The Future of US Foreign Policy: A Shift to Hawkish Approaches
The future US President is turning to hawks like Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz. This decision raises questions about the direction of US foreign policy.
Replacing Grenell with Rubio and Waltz – this sums up the initial assessment of Trump’s foreign policy team in his second term. Concerns were raised about Trump appointing lightweight individuals with questionable reputations to key positions, whose main qualification seemed to be their subservience to the President. Richard Grenell, a prominent figure in Trump’s orbit and former US Ambassador to Germany, was even considered for the role of Secretary of State or National Security Advisor.
Every president needs loyalists, and Biden also appointed close aides like Antony Blinken as Secretary of State and Jake Sullivan as National Security Advisor. Ultimately, the team must execute the President’s decisions.
However, with a President like Trump, who often acts inconsistently, is unpredictable in his impulses, and lacks a clear strategic direction, it is crucial to have competent leadership personnel around him, not just loyalists.
Falcons Take Center Stage
Rubio and Waltz are known as hawks, advocating for a strong America with significant global presence, following in the footsteps of Ronald Reagan. This faction of the Republican Party has been under fire from various isolationist groups in recent years.
This characterization also applies to the third key figure in US foreign policy, the future Secretary of Defense. Given the rising military capabilities of China and Russia, military strength is becoming central again.
Pete Hegseth, nominated by Trump for the position, highlights loyalty to Trump over substantive expertise. Hegseth, a longtime commentator at Fox News, represents hawkish positions and is not an isolationist.
These appointments alleviate concerns that America may capitulate to autocratic challengers like Putin without much resistance. All three have expressed criticism of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
However, their commitment to providing sustained support and security for Ukraine in the event of serious negotiations by Trump remains uncertain. The Trump administration will likely expect Europeans to bear the brunt of future support for Ukraine.
Focus on China
Both Waltz and Rubio prioritize issues related to China, signaling a tougher stance if they prevail in the Trump administration. Trump mainly views China through a geo-economic lens, as a competitor, paying less attention to the security concerns of US allies in the Indo-Pacific.
Waltz and Rubio are commonly referred to as “China hawks.” Waltz declared in 2021, “We are in a cold war with the Chinese Communist Party.”
Rubio, sanctioned by the Chinese regime for criticizing its actions in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, is even barred from entering China. If they have their way, the current US approach – reducing economic dependence on China and restricting the export of advanced technology to China – will intensify.
The role of American entrepreneurs heavily engaged in China, particularly Elon Musk, remains uncertain as a counterbalance. It is also unclear whether Trump will continue strengthening America’s allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific, especially in light of Biden’s promise to assist Taiwan in the event of an attack.
An Unpredictable Leader
The ultimate destination of US foreign policy under Trump remains unclear. Trump often views his cabinet-level staff as mere subordinates, lacking autonomy and authority.
Trump has also appointed a key figure in national security – Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democrat known for sympathizing with dictators and autocrats. Gabbard is slated to become the Director of National Intelligence, presenting a contrasting view to Rubio, Waltz, and Hegseth.
In summary, the nominations suggest that Trump’s second term will be characterized by a drive to solidify America’s global dominance through a policy of strength. While the Biden administration maintained a defensive posture towards Russia, China, and Iran, key players in the upcoming Trump administration seek offensive victories for America on the global stage.
Trump’s exact position within this framework remains ambiguous. It is doubtful whether the appointment of his foreign policy team is tied to a coherent foreign policy plan. Trump is likely drawn to the tough stances of those he selected. Deal-making will continue to be a priority for Trump, and he may view allies more as exploiters of American generosity than elements of American strength.
Political decisions are expected to be fiercely contested, with supporters of the more isolationist “Maga” doctrine mobilizing against the appointed hawks, seeking to limit their actions. Trump is likely to oscillate between different camps and intervene sporadically, especially in meetings with world leaders. The US foreign policy in Trump’s second term is poised to be as turbulent and chaotic as his first term.