UBS Cuts 2025 Brent Forecast, But Sees Room for Recovery
Investing in crude oil has become a hot topic in the financial market this week, as demand concerns and a stronger US dollar have led to lower prices. Despite this, UBS has cut its 2025 Brent forecast but remains optimistic about the potential for recovery.
As of 07:20 ET (11:20 GMT), WTI futures have dropped by 1% to $68.03 a barrel, while the Brent contract fell by 0.9% to $71.88 a barrel. Both contracts are facing weekly losses of around 3%.
Recent data from the Energy Information Administration showed a more-than-expected increase of 2.1 million barrels in US crude inventories last week, while gasoline stocks fell by 4.4 million barrels to the lowest level since November 2022. Additionally, the EIA stated that global oil supply is expected to exceed demand in 2025, even with OPEC+ cuts in place.
UBS has adjusted its price target for 2025 to $80/bbl, down from previous forecasts. However, the bank’s analysts believe that the market may be too pessimistic about future oil prices. They point to factors such as US crude production being influenced by spot prices rather than political factors, and the focus on capital discipline by energy executives.
While tariffs pose a risk to oil demand growth in 2025, UBS suggests that further rate cuts and fiscal stimulus measures could counteract any negative impact on economic growth. Overall, they see the oil market as balanced to marginally oversupplied next year, with potential for prices to recover from current levels.
In conclusion, despite the current challenges facing the oil market, UBS remains hopeful for a rebound in prices. Investors should keep a close eye on market trends and economic factors to make informed decisions about their investments in the energy sector.