Mexican Peso Shows Resilience Despite Credit Outlook Review and Strong US Data
- Moody’s Revises Mexico’s Credit Outlook: Moody’s recently revised Mexico’s credit outlook to negative due to concerns over judicial changes impacting economic stability.
- Peso Strengthens: The Mexican Peso has shown strength against the US Dollar, trading at 20.34, down by 0.24%.
- Minister of Finance’s Projections: Rogelio Ramirez de la O presented the 2025 economic package, forecasting a 2-3% economic growth and a fiscal deficit of 3.9% of GDP for 2025.
Despite Moody’s negative outlook on Mexico’s credit, the Mexican Peso has shown resilience against the US Dollar during the North American session. The USD/MXN trades at 20.34, down by 0.24%. Moody’s cited concerns over constitutional changes impacting the judiciary system, potentially affecting Mexico’s economic and fiscal strength.
Other Ratings Agencies and Fiscal Projections
Fitch and S&P Global have maintained Mexico’s creditworthiness stable. Fitch Ratings assigns Mexico BBB-, while S&P Global Ratings has it slightly higher. The Minister of Finance presented the 2025 economic package, projecting a 2-3% economic growth and a fiscal deficit of 3.9% of GDP for 2025.
Banxico’s Rate Cut and Inflation Expectations
The Mexican Peso has strengthened for three consecutive days despite Banxico’s rate cut to 10.25%. Banxico noted that inflation risks are tilted to the upside, expecting headline inflation to reach 4.7% by the end of 2024, above the 3% goal.
US Data Releases and Fed Comments
October’s US Retail Sales exceeded expectations, while Industrial Production improved but remained in contractionary territory. Fed officials, including Boston Fed’s Susan Collins, emphasized the need to maintain a healthy economy without rushing rate cuts.
Market Movers and Technical Outlook
- Soft US Dollar: The USD/MXN is influenced by a soft US Dollar, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropping 0.24%.
- Banxico’s Decision: Banxico lowered borrowing costs to 10.25%, expecting inflation to converge to the 3% goal by the last quarter of 2025.
- US Retail Sales: October’s US Retail Sales rose by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding forecasts.
- Industrial Production: Industrial Production for October improved from September but remained in contraction.
The USD/MXN technical outlook suggests a potential bearish continuation if the exchange rate falls below 20.00. However, if buyers regain control and push the rate above 20.50, it could reach the year-to-date high of 20.80.
Mexican Peso FAQs
Here are some frequently asked questions about the Mexican Peso:
- Determinants of MXN Value: The MXN value is influenced by the Mexican economy, central bank policy, foreign investment, remittances, geopolitical trends, and oil prices.
- Role of Banxico: Banxico aims to maintain low and stable inflation levels by adjusting interest rates, impacting MXN value.
- Impact of Macroeconomic Data: Economic indicators affect MXN valuation, with strong economic data being positive for the currency.
- Risk-On Periods: MXN tends to perform well during low-risk periods and weaken during market turbulence.