EUR/JPY Struggles Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Intervention Fears
- EUR/JPY fails to capitalize on recovery from one-month low
- Intervention fears and geopolitical risks boost demand for JPY
- BoJ rate-hike uncertainty limits losses for the cross
Market Overview
The EUR/JPY cross faced selling pressure during the Asian session, reversing part of its recovery from a month low near the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 162.25. The decline was driven by fresh buying of the Japanese Yen (JPY), pushing prices closer to the 163.00 mark.
Geopolitical Tensions
Escalating geopolitical tensions, including the approval of Ukraine’s use of US weapons inside Russia and speculation of Japanese FX market intervention, have undermined the safe-haven JPY and pressured the EUR/JPY cross.
Market Sentiment
The Euro struggles amid expectations of aggressive rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) and concerns over the impact of US protectionist policies. This bearish sentiment suggests a downside bias for the EUR/JPY pair.
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Impact
Uncertainty regarding the timing of the next BoJ interest rate hike could act as a headwind for the JPY, especially in a positive risk environment. This dynamic may attract dip-buyers for the EUR/JPY cross and support prices near the 50-day SMA.
Bank of Japan FAQs
- What is the Bank of Japan’s mandate?
- What is the BoJ’s monetary policy strategy?
- How did BoJ’s policies impact the Yen?
- What factors influenced Japanese inflation?
The BoJ is Japan’s central bank responsible for setting monetary policy to ensure price stability, targeting an inflation rate of around 2%.
The BoJ adopted ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 through Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), involving asset purchases to stimulate the economy. In 2016, the bank introduced negative interest rates and yield control on government bonds, eventually lifting rates in 2024.
The BoJ’s stimulus measures led to Yen depreciation against major currencies, driven by policy divergence with other central banks. The Yen’s value declined but partially reversed when the BoJ shifted its policy stance in 2024.
A weaker Yen and higher global energy prices contributed to Japanese inflation surpassing the BoJ’s 2% target. Rising salaries in Japan also fueled inflationary pressures.