Oil Prices Expected to Test New Lows in 2025, Macquarie Predicts
In a recent note, Macquarie stated that oil prices are likely to hit new lows next year due to a combination of geopolitical risk subsiding and bearish fundamental factors gaining strength. Brent crude settled 0.8% lower at $68.87 a barrel, nearing its 52-week low of $65.27 a barrel.
The market has been in a $5 a barrel range recently, with expectations of a significant surplus in 2025 driven by weak demand growth and substantial global supply growth. Weak demand from China, despite efforts by Beijing to boost growth, has been a major factor weighing down the outlook.
Last week, Brent fell approximately $3/bbl following disappointing Chinese stimulus announcements and OPEC’s forecast for weaker Q2 demand. Macquarie noted that China’s fiscal package approval did not materialize as expected after the National People’s Congress meeting earlier this month.
While recent geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have provided some support to oil prices, the risk of a supply disruption remains low. This suggests that the current geopolitical support may not be sustainable in the long run.
Analysis: The prediction of oil prices hitting new lows in 2025 could have significant implications for investors and consumers. Lower oil prices could lead to cheaper gasoline prices at the pump, benefiting consumers. However, it could also impact oil companies’ profitability and stock prices. Investors may need to reconsider their portfolios and strategies in light of this forecast.