Morgan Stanley Predicts New Cycle of Growth for U.S. Natural Gas Market
Morgan Stanley analysts are forecasting a new cycle of demand growth in the U.S. natural gas market, driven by increasing liquefied natural gas exports and rising electricity consumption. Despite current challenges such as high inventories and production constraints, the long-term outlook remains positive.
Natural gas inventories are currently above historical averages due to mild winter conditions and low consumption in recent months. However, experts predict that storage levels will normalize by 2025, with a significant shift to below-normal levels expected by late next year.
The analysts at Morgan Stanley maintain a price forecast of $3.75 per million British thermal units for 2025, representing an 18% upside compared to current futures. On the supply side, subdued activity in key production areas and pipeline bottlenecks highlight constraints in meeting future demand, although production is expected to grow modestly in 2025.
The main drivers of demand growth are projected to be LNG expansion and increased electricity consumption. U.S. LNG export capacity is set to grow by 85% over the next five years, adding approximately 11 billion cubic feet per day to domestic demand. Additionally, electricity consumption is expected to rise due to factors such as data center expansion and broader electrification trends.
Winter weather remains a crucial factor for market balance in 2025, with colder temperatures potentially depleting storage levels significantly. The U.S. natural gas market is poised for sustained growth driven by transformative demand drivers, despite risks such as policy shifts and geopolitical developments.
In conclusion, investors and consumers alike should keep an eye on the evolving landscape of the U.S. natural gas market, as it presents opportunities for growth and potential implications for energy costs and consumption patterns.