Pörssisähkön Hinnat Talvella: Ennusteet ja Arviot
Ennusteet Talven Pörssisähkön Hinnasta
According to Jukka Leskelä, the CEO of Energiateollisuus, the price development of exchange electricity for the upcoming winter looks moderate, with no significant deviation from the expected price level for the season. Leskelä estimates that the price of exchange electricity for January to March is currently averaging around 10 cents per kilowatt-hour, including value-added tax.
Leskelä’s assessment is in line with Tuomas Yrttiaho, who is responsible for Fortum’s consumer business in Finland. Both experts predict a relatively stable price range for exchange electricity this winter.
Impact on Consumers
- One hour of running a sauna would cost 0.8 euros if the price per kilowatt-hour is 10 cents and the sauna consumes eight kilowatt-hours per session.
- Running a dishwasher for an hour would cost 0.06 euros if one cycle consumes 0.6 kilowatt-hours and the price per kilowatt-hour is 10 cents.
Factors Affecting Price Fluctuations
Leskelä and Yrttiaho emphasize that daily prices for exchange electricity can vary significantly, especially during winter months. Leskelä points out that there will be hours when electricity prices are close to zero, while on calm and cold days, prices can spike to very high levels.
Compared to last winter, Leskelä expects a similar or slightly lower increase in exchange electricity prices this winter. He does not anticipate the extreme price spikes seen in the previous winter, such as when prices soared to over two euros per kilowatt-hour in January.
Market Dynamics and Price Formation
The price of electricity in the exchange market is influenced by the trading activities of producers and retailers. Prices are determined for each hour of the following day based on supply and demand dynamics. Winter demand typically drives prices higher compared to summer, but production conditions also play a significant role in price fluctuations.
Price forecasts are based on electricity futures, reflecting market expectations for future electricity consumption. These forecasts provide insights into market sentiment but do not dictate the exact price of exchange electricity on a given day.
Key Influencing Factors
According to Leskelä and Yrttiaho, the availability of wind power is the most significant variable affecting exchange electricity prices. Wind power availability can fluctuate greatly depending on daily wind conditions, ranging from near zero to 6,000-7,000 megawatts out of the total 8,000 megawatts of installed wind capacity in Finland.
Overall, the situation for hydroelectric power looks favorable for the winter, with no expected shortages that could drive prices up. Similarly, despite operational constraints at the Olkiluoto nuclear power plant, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on exchange electricity prices.
Expert Insights and Future Outlook
Both Leskelä and Yrttiaho emphasize that any disruptions in power plant operations during cold and calm winter days could lead to price hikes and volatility in exchange electricity prices. However, the current outlook for power plants remains stable, with no major concerns affecting price stability.
Conclusion
As winter approaches, the outlook for exchange electricity prices remains relatively stable, with moderate increases expected compared to the previous winter. Factors such as wind power availability, hydroelectric output, and nuclear plant operations will play key roles in determining price fluctuations. Consumers should monitor daily price changes and adjust their electricity usage accordingly to manage costs effectively.
FAQs
1. How are exchange electricity prices determined?
Exchange electricity prices are influenced by supply and demand dynamics in the market, with trading activities of producers and retailers setting prices for each hour of the following day.
2. What factors can lead to price spikes in exchange electricity?
Price spikes in exchange electricity can occur due to sudden changes in demand, supply shortages, operational disruptions at power plants, or extreme weather conditions affecting production capabilities.