The Impact of Scott Bessent’s Nomination on EUR/USD
- EUR/USD recovers above 1.0500 as the US Dollar weakens
- US Dollar tumbles after Trump’s pick of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary
- ECB Lane warns of potential disruption in the Eurozone due to US tariffs
In the latest market developments, the EUR/USD pair has extended its recovery above the key level of 1.0500 as the US Dollar takes a hit following President-elect Donald Trump’s selection of Scott Bessent, a fund manager, for the role of Treasury Secretary. This move has led to significant fluctuations in the currency market, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) plummeting to around 106.60.
Market Reaction to Scott Bessent’s Nomination
The initial reaction to Bessent’s nomination was positive, with bond markets reacting favorably given his background in Wall Street. However, concerns have arisen as Bessent is expected to implement Trump’s policies, including tariffs and changes to tax cuts.
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Bessent outlined his focus on tariffs, tax cuts, and maintaining the US Dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency. These policy shifts are likely to have a significant impact on the currency market and global economy.
Outlook for the US Dollar
Despite the recent weakness in the US Dollar, the overall economic outlook in the United States remains positive. Recent PMI data indicates robust growth in the service sector and a minor contraction in manufacturing output. This suggests that the US Dollar’s uptrend may resume in the near future.
Upcoming Economic Data and Fed Speculation
Investors are closely watching the upcoming release of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for October, which will influence market speculation on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. There is a 56% chance of a 25 basis points cut in rates at the December meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Analysis of Eurozone Risks and Market Sentiment
- Investors anticipate downside risks for EUR/USD amid tariff concerns
- ECB Lane warns of potential disruption in the Eurozone due to US tariffs
- German IFO Business Sentiment data shows mixed results
European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane has highlighted the high risk of disruption in the Eurozone if the US implements tariffs, potentially leading to a global trade war. This could have a significant impact on the Eurozone’s export sector and economic growth.
Recent economic data, including the German IFO Business Sentiment index, reflects a mixed sentiment among businesses. While expectations remain positive, there are concerns about the impact of global trade tensions on the Eurozone economy.
Analysts warn that a global trade war could result in substantial output losses and a stagflationary environment in the Eurozone. The region is already facing challenges, with the Composite PMI data showing a decline in both service sector output and manufacturing activity.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD
EUR/USD has bounced back from 1.0330, showing signs of recovery. While the pair has breached the 1.0500 level, the broader trend remains bearish. Short-to-long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are declining, indicating a potential downside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from oversold levels but is now stabilizing, suggesting a possible resumption of bearish momentum. Key support levels for Euro bulls include the November 22 low of 1.0330, while resistance lies at the November 20 high near 1.0600.