The Impact of Trump’s Tariffs on the Mexican Peso
The Mexican Peso (MXN) experienced a significant decline of over one percent in its most-traded pairs following President-elect Donald Trump’s announcement of imposing a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada. This move was in response to the countries’ involvement in illegal migration and drug trafficking issues, particularly with powerful cartels manufacturing Fentanyl for smuggling into the US.
- MXN weakened to 20.75 Pesos to one US Dollar (USD) after the news, down from 20.31 on Monday.
- Mexico, a key trading partner of the US, saw imports totaling $454.8 billion in 2022, with a significant increase from the previous year.
- The imposition of tariffs is expected to impact demand for Mexican goods and the value of the Mexican Peso.
Mexican Peso Faces Pressure from Banxico Easing
The Mexican Peso is also under pressure from market expectations that the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) may start cutting interest rates more aggressively due to easing inflation. Lower interest rates typically lead to reduced foreign capital inflows, affecting the currency’s value.
- Headline inflation rate fell to 4.56% year-over-year in November, below the analyst average of 4.65%.
- The Peso briefly strengthened against the USD on news of a potential Treasury Secretary with a fiscally conservative stance.
- However, Tuesday’s losses erased the gains made earlier in the week.
Technical Analysis: USD/MXN on the Rise
USD/MXN has rallied to fill the market gap and reached the top of a mini range formed in November. The pair is currently in an uptrend within a rising channel in the medium to long term.
- Short-term range-bound movement between 19.70s and 20.80s expected.
- A breakout above 20.80 could signal a more bullish trend, while a failure may lead to a return towards the lower end of the range.
Mexican Peso FAQs
Here are some frequently asked questions about the Mexican Peso and its market influences:
- The Mexican Peso’s value is influenced by various factors, including the country’s economy, central bank policies, foreign investment, remittances, and geopolitical trends.
- Banxico’s main goal is to maintain low and stable inflation levels through interest rate adjustments, impacting the Peso’s strength.
- Macroeconomic data releases and the state of the economy play a crucial role in determining the Peso’s valuation.
- MXN tends to perform well during low-risk market periods but may weaken during times of economic uncertainty.