USD/JPY Pair Update: US Dollar Falls Back After Strong Opening

  • USD/JPY tumbles as the US Dollar falls back after a stellar opening.
  • US Trump threatens to raise tariffs on Canada and Mexico for providing passage to China to supply illicit drugs in the US economy.
  • Investors await the US PCE inflation and the Tokyo CPI data for October.

The USD/JPY pair tumbles to near 153.00 in Tuesday’s North American session. The asset plummets as the US Dollar (USD) gives up its entire intraday gains and turns negative after a strong opening. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, falls to near 106.50 after a strong opening around 107.50.

US Dollar’s Performance and Market Sentiment

The Greenback had a stellar opening after United States (US) President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for providing China a freeway to supply illicit drugs to the United States (US), said in a tweet on Truth.Social. For that, Trump also announced to levy additional 10% tariffs over China above 60%, which he already mentioned in the election campaign.

However, the US Dollar falls back as investors remain confident that Scott Bessent, Trump’s nomination for Treasury Secretary, will maintain political steadiness despite fulfilling the Trump’s economic agenda. Bessent said in an interview with Financial Times (FT) over the weekend that Trump’s policies will not boost inflationary pressures.

Upcoming Market Events

Going forward, investors await the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for October to get fresh cues about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) likely interest rate action in December, which will be published on Wednesday. Economists expect the inflation data to have accelerated from September readings on an annual basis. Month-on-month headline and core PCE inflation data are estimated to have grown steadily.

Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) performs strongly even though traders dial back expectations for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to hike interest rates in December. Market participants expect that political uncertainty in Japan limits BoJ’s potential for raining its key borrowing rates further. This week, investors will focus on the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October, which will be published on Thursday.

Japanese Yen FAQs

Below are some frequently asked questions about the Japanese Yen (JPY) and its impact on the global economy:

What Determines the Value of the Japanese Yen?

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

Bank of Japan’s Influence on the Yen

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners.

Policy Divergence and Yen’s Value

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.

Japanese Yen as a Safe-Haven Investment

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability.

 

Analysis and Conclusion

In today’s financial landscape, the movements of major currency pairs like USD/JPY can provide valuable insights into global market sentiment and economic dynamics. The recent tumble of the USD/JPY pair due to the US Dollar’s retracement after a strong opening highlights the impact of political developments and economic data on currency valuations. The upcoming US PCE inflation and Tokyo CPI data releases will be crucial for investors to gauge the future actions of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.

Understanding the factors influencing the Japanese Yen’s value, such as the Bank of Japan’s policies and its role as a safe-haven investment, can help both seasoned investors and newcomers navigate the complexities of the forex market. Stay informed, stay vigilant, and always consider the broader economic context when making financial decisions to secure a stable financial future.

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