Macro Funds Adjust Positions Post US Elections
Following the US elections, macro funds have strategically reduced their position sizes by nearly 60%, according to TDS’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali. This proactive move has helped to minimize potential downside risks in the market, as long as the current macro narrative remains unchanged.
Analysis:
- Macro funds have successfully managed to adapt to the post-election market conditions by adjusting their positions.
- This adjustment has helped to mitigate risks and maintain stability in the market.
Gold Market Outlook
Gold prices are currently in a state of flux, with the need for another catalyst to trigger the next round of liquidations. While CTA positioning may have caused some fluctuations, any significant downside moves are unlikely unless prices drop below $2550/oz. Traders in Shanghai have seen a decline in positions, but recent sessions have shown stabilization.
Overall, the outlook for gold prices suggests a range-bound pattern in the near term, as buying exhaustion becomes evident without a new catalyst for further liquidations.
Silver Market Analysis:
Contrary to gold, the positioning in silver markets remains more stable, with CTA flows indicating potential upside movement. Algorithms are expected to buy during an uptrend but will not sell during a downtrend in the upcoming week. This suggests a positive outlook for silver, especially in comparison to gold on an XAUXAG basis.
Key Takeaways:
- Macro funds have successfully adjusted their positions post US elections to mitigate risks in the market.
- Gold prices need a new catalyst to trigger further liquidations, while silver shows potential for upside movement.
- CTA flows in silver markets indicate a favorable outlook for the metal in the coming week.