The Japanese Yen Benefits Amid Trump’s Tariff Threats and US Bond Yields Decline
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is experiencing a surge in demand as US President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats continue to fuel interest in traditional safe-haven assets. Additionally, the nomination of Scott Bessent as the US Treasury secretary is dampening US Treasury bond yields, further boosting the appeal of the lower-yielding JPY. On the other hand, the US Dollar (USD) is struggling to attract buyers, causing the USD/JPY pair to drop to a three-week low around the 152.25 area.
Factors Driving the Japanese Yen’s Strength
- Trump’s tariff threats sparking concerns of trade wars and global economic impact
- Scott Bessent’s nomination restraining US bond yields
- Positive service-sector inflation in Japan hinting at potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan
- Japanese PM’s push for significant wage hikes in negotiations
- FOMC’s stance on potential pause in policy rate easing
- Market anticipation of Fed rate cut in December
Market Reaction and Future Outlook
Despite these positive developments for the JPY, there are factors that could limit its appreciation, such as domestic political uncertainty in Japan and a ceasefire deal in the Middle East easing geopolitical tensions. Traders are now awaiting key US economic data, including the Q3 GDP print and the PCE Price Index, to guide their next moves. Additionally, upcoming Japanese macro data releases, such as Tokyo’s Core CPI report, will influence market sentiment in the Asian session.
Technical Analysis of USD/JPY Pair
From a technical standpoint, the USD/JPY pair is showing bearish signals, with a close below the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart indicating further downside potential. Oscillators on the daily chart also support a depreciating move for the pair. A break below the key 152.00 support level could lead to a test of the monthly swing low around 151.30-151.25.
On the upside, the 153.00 level serves as an immediate resistance, followed by 153.25-153.30. A sustained break above these levels could trigger a short-covering rally towards 154.00 and beyond. The 154.60 level and 155.00 mark are important hurdles to watch for further upside momentum.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the central bank of Japan responsible for setting monetary policy to ensure price stability. The bank’s policy tools include issuing banknotes and controlling currency and monetary supply.
The BoJ implemented an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation. This policy involved Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) and negative interest rates. In 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, signaling a shift from its ultra-loose stance.
The BoJ’s stimulus measures led to a weaker Yen and increased Japanese inflation, surpassing the 2% target. The policy divergence between the BoJ and other central banks also impacted the Yen’s value against other currencies.
Overall, the BoJ’s policies and economic indicators play a crucial role in shaping the Yen’s strength and impact global financial markets.