By the World’s Best Investment Manager and Financial Markets Journalist
A recent Reuters poll of 41 economists and analysts has revealed that oil prices could face a stall in 2025. The main factors contributing to this forecast are economic weakness in China, which is clouding the demand picture, and ample global supplies that outweigh support from an expected delay to a planned OPEC+ output hike.
The consensus from the survey predicts that oil prices will average $74.53 per barrel in 2025, down from the previous forecast of $76.61 in October. This marks the seventh consecutive downward revision in the global benchmark’s 2025 consensus, which has averaged $80 per barrel so far in 2024. Additionally, is projected to average $70.69 per barrel in 2025, below the previous month’s expectation of $72.73.
According to Stratas Advisors President John Paisie, sentiment among oil traders has turned negative due to concerns about the global economy, especially in China, and worries about OPEC+ aligning supply with demand. The International Energy Agency also expects global oil supply to exceed demand in 2025, even with cuts from OPEC+ in place.
Despite geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions on Iran, the impact on oil prices is expected to be limited. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, mentioned that any slowdown in Iranian exports could be offset by increases from other producers.
In conclusion, the forecast for oil prices in 2025 is not optimistic due to economic uncertainties and oversupply in the market. Investors and consumers should be prepared for potential price fluctuations and monitor global economic trends that could impact oil demand and supply.
