Mexican Peso Strengthens Against USD on Positive Economic Indicators
- Mexican Peso gains 0.25% as USD weakens, supported by strong employment data.
- Banxico hints at larger rate cuts, boosting MXN’s strength despite mixed Fed signals.
- Upcoming US labor data could influence Fed’s December policy decision.
The Mexican Peso has shown resilience against the US Dollar, rising by 0.25% on Tuesday. This positive movement is backed by robust employment figures and a general weakness in the American currency. Despite a favorable Job Openings & Labor Turnover (JOLTs) report in the US, the Greenback’s decline may deter the Federal Reserve (Fed) from implementing further policy easing at the upcoming December meeting. At present, the USD/MXN pair is trading at 20.32, marking a 0.25% decrease.
Key Economic Indicators Driving the Mexican Peso Movement
- Mexico’s National Statistics Agency (INEGI) reported a strong labor market, supporting Banxico’s decision for potential rate cuts.
- However, data also showed a contraction in Gross Fixed Investment in September.
- The Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) highlighted signs of economic stagnation despite marginal improvements in manufacturing and services sectors.
Banxico’s Stance and Fed’s Policy Signals
- Last week, Banxico hinted at the possibility of more significant rate cuts during the November meeting.
- The Fed’s mixed signals on rate cuts, alongside upcoming US labor data releases, could impact the central bank’s decision-making in December.
Looking ahead, Mexico’s economic calendar includes the release of automobile production data, while the US will see notable events such as Fed speeches, PMI surveys, Initial Jobless Claims, and Nonfarm Payrolls figures.
Daily Market Insights: Analysis of Mexican Peso Movement
- INEGI reported a lower Unemployment Rate in October, surpassing expectations.
- Gross Fixed Investment in September improved on a monthly basis but declined annually.
- Economists anticipate a rate cut by Banxico at the December meeting, with growth projections for 2024 and 2025.
- The October JOLTS report in the US exceeded estimates, indicating a positive outlook for the economy.
- Market indicators suggest a high probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting.
- Forecasts for inflation, GDP, and exchange rates in Mexico show a cautious outlook for the coming years.
Technical Analysis of USD/MXN Pair
Despite a retreat below 20.50, the USD/MXN pair maintains an upward bias, reflecting the Peso’s strength. Sellers are gaining momentum, as indicated by the RSI sloping downwards. In the short term, the pair is expected to decline further towards key support levels.
If USD/MXN breaks below 20.00, it could target the 50-day SMA at 19.96 and subsequently the 100-day SMA at 19.61. On the upside, breaching 20.50 may lead to resistance levels at 20.82 and 21.00.
Insights into Banxico’s Role and Monetary Policy
- Banxico plays a crucial role in maintaining the value of the Mexican Peso and setting monetary policy.
- Interest rate decisions by Banxico influence economic conditions and impact MXN’s strength against USD.
- The central bank’s actions are closely tied to those of the US Federal Reserve, with decisions often aligned or anticipated.