Title: Global Lithium Supply Expected to Increase 12-28% by 2026, But Prices Likely to Decline: Daiwa Capital Markets
Daiwa Capital Markets recently released a research note forecasting a significant increase in global lithium supply over the next few years, driven by key regions such as Argentina, Australia, and Africa. However, the firm warns that oversupply will put pressure on lithium prices, with a projected decline from the current price of around CNY78k/t to CNY70-75k/t in 2025.
The demand for lithium, especially from electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage systems (ESS), is expected to slow down. EV battery demand growth is forecasted to drop from 35% YoY in 2023 to 15-17% in 2025-2026, while ESS battery demand growth will also decelerate.
As a result of this slowdown in demand and the increase in supply, Daiwa expects lithium prices to struggle to maintain their recent highs. Production from key regions like Argentina, Africa, and Australia is expected to increase, but Tier-2 companies may face margin pressures and could cut production as prices fall.
Despite a recent rise in lithium prices due to China’s “replacement subsidy” policy, Daiwa believes this increase is unsustainable and anticipates further price declines in the first half of 2025. The firm has downgraded Ganfeng to Underperform and maintains a negative outlook on other major lithium players, cautioning against early investment in the sector.
In summary, while the global lithium supply is expected to grow significantly in the coming years, oversupply and slowing demand from key industries like EVs and ESS are likely to put downward pressure on prices. Investors should approach the lithium sector with caution, as further price declines are expected in the near future.