## Euro Resilience Amid ECB Event Risk

The EUR/USD pair has shown remarkable resilience in the face of the European Central Bank (ECB) event risk. Despite ECB President Christine Lagarde not adopting an extremely dovish stance, the currency pair has maintained stability, with the euro experiencing only a slight dip at the end of the trading session. Currently, the pair continues to hover around the 1.05 mark.

### Analysts’ Observations

Analysts from ING have noted a downward trend in eurozone interest rates, with expectations that rates could surpass the neutral threshold of 2.00/2.25%. The recent widening of the Italian:German sovereign bond spread, which some interpreted as a result of profit-taking and position adjustments, is not believed to be a direct reaction to the ECB’s awareness of a potential eurozone economic slowdown.

### Market Expectations

Market participants are closely monitoring the EUR/USD pair, anticipating that it will remain close to the 1.05 level for the day. Attention is now turning to next Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which is expected to be the next significant event influencing the dollar. Short positions in EUR/USD are predicted to be maintained, as they are considered carry-positive. The short-term trading range is projected to be between 1.0450 and 1.0550.

## Swiss National Bank Actions and Predictions

In Switzerland, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has taken a more assertive approach with a 50 basis point rate cut. Despite expressing a dislike for negative interest rates, the new SNB President, Martin Schlegel, has acknowledged the bank’s willingness to implement them if necessary. While ING is not fully convinced of a negative rate scenario for the SNB next year, they predict a downward trend for the EUR/CHF pair, suggesting that the SNB may not cut rates as deeply as the ECB.

This comprehensive analysis provides valuable insights into the current state of the EUR/USD pair and the actions of the Swiss National Bank. By staying informed about these developments, investors can make more informed decisions about their financial future and navigate the complexities of the global economy with confidence.

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