Geo-Political Scenario Analysis: Trump’s Influence on Commodities Prices
As the world eagerly anticipates President-elect Donald Trump’s impact on the economy, commodities traders are bracing for potential bearish trends. The looming uncertainty surrounding policy changes by central banks, influenced by political agendas, could lead to economic halts in commodity prices.
Trump’s preferences are expected to shape his policies on interest rates and import tariffs, potentially strengthening the US dollar. This could trigger significant fluctuations in precious metals and energy prices. If markets struggle to adapt to higher interest rates, both commodity and global stock markets may face upheaval.
Furthermore, global central banks may maintain strict policies to combat rising inflation, adding to economic uncertainty and hindering fresh investments. Traders must remain vigilant in the first half of the year, as unresolved geo-political issues could spark a recession-like situation.
Precious Metal Prices Analysis:
Looking at the movements of gold and silver prices, both commodities are facing bearish pressures following peaks in late 2024. Silver futures, in particular, show signs of exhaustion despite growing demand, hinting at continued bearish trends. On the other hand, the crypto market experienced a wave of selling at the end of 2024 but remains relatively optimistic due to expectations of favorable regulations under Trump.
Energy Prices Analysis:
Natural gas and WTI Crude Oil futures are also under bearish pressure, with WTI Crude Oil sliding after reaching a peak in early 2022. The formation of a bearish crossover indicates a potential downward trend, while natural gas prices face volatility but maintain a bearish outlook.
Conclusion:
The fear of an impending economic crisis under President-elect Trump’s administration looms large. Failure to address these issues promptly could lead to a recession. It is important for readers to exercise caution and make informed investment decisions based on their discretion, as this analysis serves as an observation rather than investment advice.