US Rates Update
The US 10-Year Bond Yield has completed wave i at the 5.021% high and is currently correcting in a 5-wave impulsive sequence within wave ii. Here are the retracement levels:
- 50% = 2.698%
- 61.8% = 2.155%
We are operating under the assumption that wave ii has evolved into a flat-type correction, as illustrated in the chart above.
Long-Term Monthly Chart Analysis
In the long-term monthly chart, wave A concluded at the 15.83 high in 1981. Since then, we have experienced a triple 3 wave correction within wave B that ended at the 0.38% level. Currently, we are witnessing a multi-year wave C rally that is projected to push rates back up to at least the 15.83% high again.
Trading Recommendation: Go short, with a risk to 5.50%.
Active Positions: Short, with a risk to 5.50%!
Gold Market Update
The Gold market continues to rally in wave .v. of -iii-. Within wave .v., wave ^i^ of *i* ended at the 1997.20 high, and wave ^ii^ at 1931.80. Currently, we are progressing in wave ^iii^ with a projected endpoint of:
- ^iii^ = 6.25^i^ = 3101.20
We are now in wave $iv$, which seems to have formed a bullish triangle, possibly complete at the 2656.70 low. If so, we can expect a sharp upward movement in wave $v$. Alternatively, the bullish triangle of wave $iv$ may expand and extend before completion.
Our current projected endpoint for the end of wave -iii- is:
- -iii- = 6.25-i- = 3199.90
Trading Recommendation: Go long. Use puts as stops.
Active Positions: Long gold, with puts as our stops!
Analysis and Implications
Understanding the current trends in US rates and the Gold market is crucial for investors looking to make informed decisions. Here’s a breakdown of the key points and their implications:
US Rates:
- The US 10-Year Bond Yield is correcting in a 5-wave impulsive sequence within wave ii.
- Projected rally in a multi-year wave C rally, with rates potentially reaching the 15.83% high again.
- Trading Recommendation: Go short, with a risk to 5.50%.
Gold Market:
- Continued rally in wave .v. of -iii-, with a projected endpoint for wave ^iii^.
- Possible completion of wave $iv$ bullish triangle, leading to a potential sharp upward movement in wave $v$.
- Trading Recommendation: Go long. Use puts as stops.
By staying informed about these market developments and following the trading recommendations, investors can position themselves for success in the ever-changing financial landscape.