Weekly Market Recap: Greenback’s Performance and Key Events Ahead
Despite a resurgence of optimism in the latter half of the week, the Greenback was unable to reverse its weekly pullback. Various factors such as tariff headlines, caution from Fed policymakers, and the upcoming release of US CPI data are expected to keep the currency’s volatility unchanged in the short term.
US Dollar Index Performance and Key Events
The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded with modest losses this week, influenced by swings around the tariffs narrative and a late recovery in US yields. Looking ahead, key events to watch include:
- NFIB Business Optimism Index on February 11
- Weekly Mortgage Applications by MBA
- Inflation Rate followed by EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories on February 12
- Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Producer Prices on February 13
- Retail Sales, Import/Export Prices, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Business Inventories, and Capacity Utilization on February 14
EUR/USD and GBP/USD Trends
EUR/USD retreated for the second week in a row due to fears of tariffs on the European Union and the Greenback’s recovery. Meanwhile, GBP/USD managed to close the week with gains despite a dovish tone from the BoE. Key events for these pairs include:
- EMU’s Investor Confidence on February 10
- Germany’s final Inflation Rate and Industrial Production on February 13
- Wholesale Prices in Germany and Q4 GDP Growth Rate in the euro bloc on February 14
- BRC Retail Sales Monitor for GBP/USD on February 11
- RICS House Price Balance and Q4 GDP Growth Rate for GBP/USD on February 13
USD/JPY and AUD/USD Outlook
USD/JPY maintained a downward bias for the fourth week amid speculation of further tightening by the BoJ. On the other hand, AUD/USD managed to reverse Monday’s pullback and ended the week with gains. Notable events for these pairs include:
- Current Account results and Bank Lending figures for USD/JPY on February 10
- Machine Tools Orders and Producer Prices for USD/JPY on February 12
- Final prints of Building Permits and Private House Approvals for AUD/USD on February 10
- Westpac Consumer Confidence gauge and Business Confidence print for AUD/USD on February 11
Anticipating Economic Perspectives: Voices on the Horizon
- Fed’s Hammack, Williams, and Powell speak on February 11
- Fed’s Bostic and Powell, ECB’s Nagel, and BoE’s Greene speak on February 12
- ECB’s Nagel speaks on February 13