The Impact of Energy Prices and Tariff Risks on the Market

Energy markets are facing pressure due to demand concerns and the potential for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal. Energy prices, including WTI, have fallen below $70/bbl, with ICE dropping by 2.35%. Tariff risks and declining consumer confidence are contributing to these concerns. However, the possibility of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is improving, with a potential minerals deal between the US and Ukraine on the horizon. This could lead to the lifting of Russian sanctions, reducing supply uncertainty in the market.

The recent American Petroleum Institute (API) data shows a decrease in US crude oil inventories by 600k barrels, the first decline since mid-January. Output disruptions in North Dakota may have contributed to this decrease. Additionally, European gas prices, particularly TTF, have faced significant pressure, with German utilities calling for storage target rules to be eased to lower demand for gas storage.

In the metals market, COMEX copper surged after President Trump ordered an investigation into copper imports for national security reasons, potentially leading to tariffs in the future. This has caused COMEX copper futures to rise by more than 3%, with the COMEX/LME arbitrage widening back towards $900/t.

Overall, the market is experiencing fluctuations due to energy prices, tariff risks, and geopolitical developments. Investors should stay informed and monitor these factors closely to make informed decisions about their investments.