The ten-year American Treasury yield rose a few basis points while the dollar remained stable. Core PCE increased by 2.6 percent year-over-year in January, slightly below expectations of 2.6%. In December, the level was at 2.8%. This statistic is considered one of the Federal Reserve’s favorite measures of inflation pressure in the USA.
At 2:34 pm, the EUR/USD was stronger at 1.0410, compared to 1.0411 just before the data release. Yesterday’s figure was 1.0401. The yield on the ten-year American Treasury bond traded at 4.28%, up from 4.25% shortly before the release. Yesterday’s figure was 4.27%.
On the Stockholm Stock Exchange, the OMXS30 index was down 0.75%, compared to a decrease of 0.81% just before the data was published. The table below shows the Core PCE development over the past few months.
| USA | Core PCE, YoY, % | Consensus |
|——————|———————-|—————|
| January 2025 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| December 2024 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| November 2024 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| October 2024 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| September 2024 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| August 2024 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| July 2024 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| June 2024 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| May 2024 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| April 2024 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| March 2024 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| February 2024 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| January 2024 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| December 2023 | 2.9 | 3.0 |
| November 2023 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| October 2023 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| September 2023 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| August 2023 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| July 2023 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| June 2023 | 4.1 | 4.2 |
| May 2023 | 4.6 | 4.7 |
| April 2023 | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| March 2023 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
This data provides a comprehensive overview of the Core PCE trend over the past months, reflecting the fluctuations in inflation pressure in the USA. The Core PCE index is a key indicator monitored by the Federal Reserve to assess the overall inflationary environment and guide monetary policy decisions. An increase in Core PCE signals rising inflationary pressures, which could impact interest rates and currency exchange rates.
The movement in the EUR/USD pair and the American Treasury yield reflects the market’s reaction to the latest Core PCE data. Investors and analysts closely watch these indicators to gauge the health of the economy and anticipate potential policy changes by the Federal Reserve. The performance of the OMXS30 index on the Stockholm Stock Exchange also reflects investor sentiment and market dynamics influenced by the Core PCE figures.
Overall, the Core PCE data release has significant implications for financial markets and economic outlook. It serves as a crucial barometer for inflation trends and guides investment decisions in both domestic and international markets. As the Federal Reserve continues to monitor inflationary pressures, market participants will closely follow future Core PCE releases for insights into the trajectory of the economy and monetary policy direction.