Many Swedish macroeconomists are predicting that February inflation will come in higher than the forecast by the Riksbank. Factors influencing this include higher food and electricity prices, according to the banks.
In February, it is believed that inflation slightly increased to 2.8% for KPIF and 2.9% for KPIF excluding energy, with contributions from energy, rent increases, and higher food prices, as stated by Swedbank.
The SCB will release quick CPI data on March 6th, with final inflation data for February to follow on March 13th.
Food prices are expected to “rise rapidly,” with Swedbank noting that while short-term food prices are increasing, the overall price hike will depend on how long commodity prices continue to rise and on retail margins.
The bank anticipates February inflation rates of 2.8% for KPIF and 2.9% for KPIF excluding energy, an increase from January’s figures of 2.2% and 2.7% respectively. Swedbank expects inflation to remain high throughout the year and has revised its forecast, projecting a peak just above 3% in the summer.
SEB also highlights the impact of electricity prices on the February outcome. The bank suggests that high electricity prices will significantly boost inflation but expects a price decrease in the future.
SEB analysts Olle Holmgren and Amanda Sundström write that later electricity terms have slightly decreased, indicating substantially lower prices in the spring and summer. They predict an inflation outcome for February of 2.7% for KPIF, both including and excluding energy.
Nordea shares a similar outlook to SEB, expecting KPIF to come in at 2.7% for February, including and excluding energy. The bank also forecasts an annual inflation rate according to KPI of 1.1%.
Handelsbanken aligns its forecast within the 2.7%-2.8% range. The bank expects total KPIF inflation to rise to 2.8% on an annual basis in February, up from 2.2% in January. While maintaining their forecast for the year with inflation slightly above 2%, Handelsbanken does not rule out the possibility of February’s figures surprising on the downside.
Danske Bank also follows the trend, forecasting inflation measured in KPIF at 2.7%.
In conclusion, the Swedish macroeconomic landscape is anticipating higher inflation rates in February due to various contributing factors such as food and electricity prices. The banks’ forecasts range from 2.7% to 2.9%, with expectations of continued high inflation throughout the year. Stay tuned for the release of the final inflation data to see how these predictions unfold.