The Eurovision 2025 Final: Predictions and Favorites
Saturday night marks the highly anticipated final of Eurovision 2025, and the betting odds have already singled out a clear favorite: the Swedish trio KAJ with their catchy and ironic song Bara Bada Bastu, which celebrates the tradition of the sauna. Predictions give them a 41% chance of winning the competition. KAJ has been leading the betting odds since February, but their chances have significantly improved in the past few days, especially after their performance in the first semifinal, where they gained eight points in the average probability according to Eurovision betting sites.
The Top Contenders
In second place, we have the Austrian ballad Wasted Love by JJ, marking a meteoric rise for Austria compared to last year when they finished second to last in the final. The third spot on the podium is predicted to be taken by the French singer Louane with her emotional ballad Maman, which pays tribute to motherhood.
On the other hand, the Spanish contender, Melody, with her song Esa Diva, is not faring as well in the predictions, only holding a 1% chance of winning. Despite this, Melody has climbed to the fourteenth position in the rankings in the past week, thanks to a revamped version of her song that differed significantly from her performance in the Benidorm Fest back in February.
Popularity on Spotify
Another revealing metric of success is the number of streams on Spotify, which indicates the popularity of each song. Spotify rates songs based on values between 0 and 100, reflecting the accumulated streams by users.
Unsurprisingly, the most streamed song in recent weeks is the Swedish entry by KAJ. This marks the first time since 1998 that Sweden has opted for a Swedish-language song, albeit in a unique dialect called Vörå, which combines Swedish and Finnish influences.
Other songs that have garnered significant streams on Spotify include the Italian entry Volevo essere un duro and the candidate from San Marino Tutta l’Italia. Despite its popularity on Spotify, Melody’s Esa Diva also ranks in the top 10 for streams, even though her chances of winning appear slim.
Can We Trust the Predictions?
While predictions can be a useful tool to gauge the potential winners of Eurovision, they are not always foolproof. Since 2017, predictions have accurately forecasted the winner five times and the runner-up four times.
However, last year marked a deviation from the trend, as predictions failed to foresee the champion and the second-place finisher. Nemo, who ultimately clinched the victory, was initially predicted to place third. The expected winner, Rim Tim Tagi Dim from Croatia, ended up in second place.
The Powerhouses of Eurovision
If the predictions hold true, Sweden is poised to claim its eighth victory at the Eurovision Song Contest on Saturday. This victory would solidify Sweden’s position as the most successful country in Eurovision history, surpassing Ireland’s seven wins.
Sweden has dominated the competition in the 21st century, securing the coveted trophy three times. Loreen claimed victory in 2012 with Euphoria and in 2023 with Tattoo, while Måns Zelmerlöw triumphed in 2015 with Heroes.
On the other hand, Spain is expected to remain in the lower ranks of the leaderboard, a familiar position for the country in the past decade, with the exception of Chanel’s third-place finish with SloMo in 2022.
Conclusion
As the excitement builds for the Eurovision 2025 final, fans and pundits alike are eagerly awaiting to see if the predictions will align with the actual results. With Sweden leading the pack as the favorite, the stage is set for an epic showdown in Basilea’s St. Jakobshalle. Whether the favorites will reign supreme or if an underdog will steal the spotlight, Eurovision promises to deliver a night of memorable performances and surprises.
FAQs
What is the significance of Spotify popularity in Eurovision predictions?
Spotify popularity serves as a valuable indicator of a song’s reach and appeal to a wider audience. High streaming numbers can translate to increased fan support and potentially influence the final outcome of the Eurovision Song Contest.
How accurate are Eurovision predictions in forecasting the winner?
While Eurovision predictions have been relatively accurate in recent years, there is always an element of unpredictability in the competition. Upsets and surprises are not uncommon, adding to the excitement and suspense of the final results.