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Tuesday 30th March 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are currently testing our support target at 1.17500, which coincides with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and ascending trend line. The daily time frame echoes the same bullish view as well as prices are sitting on our support target at 1.1750.

On the H4 timeframe, prices could see limited downside before it reaches our support level at 1.17500, in line with the graphical support level found on the bigger time frames, where we could see a bounce above this level to our H4 resistance level at 1.1800. This level lines up with the graphical resistance area and 23.6% fibonacci retracement. Keeping in mind that prices are sitting on a key support level on the daily and weekly time frames, a break above our H4 resistance level at 1.1800 could see a further upside to our next resistance target at 1.18300.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1800 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 17500 support area found on H4 time frame

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly and daily chart, we can see that prices could see limited downside before it reaches our support area at 1.35000, in line with the graphical support area and 38.2% fibonacci retracement. On the daily time frame, prices are facing bearish pressure from our resistance at 1.38000 as well, in line with our graphical resistance area and 23.6% fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bearish pressure from our resistance at 1.3820, in line with our graphical resistance area and 50% fibonacci retracement, 78.6% fibonacci extension where we could see a further downside below this level to our H4 support target at 1.36800, in line with the graphical swing low support area.

Areas of consideration:

  • 38200 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 36800 support area found on H4 timeframe

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AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the price is trending under the ascending trendline support turned-resistance drawn from 9th March (2020). Currently price has pushed away from the trendline resistance and is holding above the 38.2% fibonacci retracement taken 2nd Nov (2020) swing low, to 22nd Fed (2021) swing high.

On the Daily timeframe, we are seeing a complete head and shoulder pattern where we may expect further drop. Lastly, on the H4, price has reversed from a fibonacci confluence level at 0.7645, consisting 127% fibonacci retracement and 161.8% fibonacci extension. We may see a push towards the weekly and Daily support level at 0.75556, in line with the previous swing low. However, if price fails to hold below the 0.7645 level we may see a swing towards major level 0.77 in line with 100% fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 showing bearish momentum and may find support at 0.75556
  • Daily time frame showed a complete bearish head and shoulder pattern.
  • Weekly time shows price reversed from trendline resistance area.

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USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are taking support from ascending trendline support,facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 100% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci retracement. In the daily time frame, prices are taking support from horizontal pullback support which coincides with 50% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci retracement.

In the H4 time frame, prices seem to face resistance from horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 161.8% fibonacci retracement. Prices might push down towards support in line with 50% fibonacci extension and 161.8% fibonacci retracement. Stochastics is also showing resistance from 97.92, in line with our analysis that prices might push downwards.

Areas of consideration:

  • On the H4, prices might face resistance from 109.850 which is a horizontal swing high resistance and 161.8% fibonacci retracement
  • 469 possible downside target

 

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USD/CAD:

Looking at the weekly chart, price has approached the level of 1.25958 in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement in line with Trendline resistance from 30 March (2020. We may see a reversal from there towards the Previous swing low level at 1.23749.

In the daily time frame, we are seeing a similar move where price is currently testing the weekly resistance in line with the daily 78.6% fibonacci extension level. Lastly, on H4, price is making higher lows but equal highs, if price manages to close above the 1.25958 level, we may see a further push towards 1.26466 level in line with -27% and 88.6% fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 may push further up north from 1.25948 towards 1.26466
  • Daily and weekly time frames are both showing short-term bullish momentum.

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USD/CHF:

USD/CHF continues to approach the weekly 0.95000 resistance level, in line with our 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and descending trendline resistance. The daily chart also shows a further rise above the daily 0.92300 support level as price approaches the key 0.95000 resistance level. We could potentially see price rise further to test the key weekly 0.95000 resistance level.

On the H4 chart, we see that price has broken above the 0.93800 resistance-turned-support level, and is now pulling back to retest the same level again. We note that price is also testing the moving average support and is now holding above it, in line with our short-term bullish bias. In this scenario, we could potentially see a bounce at the 0.93800 resistance-turned-support and a further rise towards the key weekly 0.95000 resistance level. Otherwise, should price break below 0.93800, we could see a stronger pullback towards the daily 0.92300 support level instead.

Areas of consideration:

  • Price broke above the 0.93800 resistance-turned-support, and is now retesting the same level.
  • Price could potentially push higher to test the key weekly 0.95000 resistance level.

 

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price continues to hold between 31190 support and 34600 resistance. Traders should continue watching these two long term levels. On the Daily, we see price pulling back, however technical indicators continue to show room for further bullish momentum. Buyers could possibly look to add to their longs on any price pullbacks with possible target at 34600 weekly resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 31190 could see price pull back towards weekly support at 29570.

On the H4, price tested and bounced above 32148 support and is pushing up towards 33590 resistance. If prices could continue to make a higher high, it could signal the continuation of the bullish momentum. EMA is also below the prices, showing a bullish pressure. However, if prices made a lower high and dropped below the 32138 support, prices could well push down even further towards 31191 level.

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch short term H4 support at 32148
  • Price still holding above moving average on both short term H4 and long term weekly timeframes

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XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, gold is currently holding between 1760 resistance and 1680 support.  Long term traders should continue to watch these two levels as a break of either will see price swing in that direction. However, we note that price is still holding below the long term moving average. On the daily chart, we see price drifting sideways whilst holding below 1760 resistance, in line with our 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A limited push down to test 1680 support could be likely. As long as 1760 resistance is not broken, sellers can watch for opportunities to sell on further rise. Otherwise a break above 1760 resistance should see price swing the other way.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are testing and holding above 1700 support level, in line with our 127.2% fibonacci extension and 61.8% fibonacci retracement. With Stochastic reacting above support where price bounced in the past, we still see a low probability bullish scenario where a push up to our H4 resistance at 1725 is possible, in line with our 50% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci extension. Otherwise, failure to hold above 1700 support could see price drop deeper towards the 1680 support level, which is also found on the daily and weekly time frames.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1700 support area found on H4 time frame
  • 1680 support area found on all timeframes

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