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Thursday 1st April 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices could see limited downside before it reaches our support target at 1.16200, which coincides with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. The daily time frame echoes the same bearish view as well as prices are facing bearish resistance from our resistance level at 1.18500 in line with our 23.6%, 50% fibonacci retracement where we could see a further downside below this level to our next support target at 1.16200, which is in line with our horizontal swing low support.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bearish pressure from our resistance level at 1.17600, in line with our graphical pullback resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement where we could see a further drop to our next support level at 1.16200.

Areas of consideration:

  • 17600 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 16200 support area found on H4 time frame

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly and daily chart, we can see that prices could see limited downside before it reaches our support area at 1.35000, in line with the graphical support area and 38.2% fibonacci retracement. On the daily time frame, prices are facing bearish pressure from our resistance at 1.38000 as well, in line with our graphical resistance area and 23.6% fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bearish pressure from our resistance at 1.3820, in line with our graphical resistance area and 50% fibonacci retracement, 78.6%, 61.8% fibonacci extension where we could see a further downside below this level to our H4 support target at 1.36800, in line with the graphical swing low support area.

Areas of consideration:

  • 38200 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 36800 support area found on H4 timeframe

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AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the price is trending under the ascending trendline support turned-resistance drawn from 9th March (2020). Currently price has pushed away from the trendline resistance and has yet to close under the 38.2% fibonacci retracement taken 2nd Nov (2020) swing low, to 22nd Fed (2021) swing high. On the Daily timeframe, we are seeing a complete head and shoulder pattern where we may expect further drop, price is holding beneath the 38.2% fibonacci retracement level taken from the weekly timeframe. Lastly, on the H4, as expected, we saw a pull back towards the Daily resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement at 0.76339 and price is currently making its way towards the weekly and Daily support level at 0.75556, in line with the -27% fibonacci extension level. A new resistance closer to price would be the 0.76 major figure in line with 78.6% fibonacci retracement where we may wait for a pullback for better entry.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 showing bearish momentum and may find support at 0.75556
  • Daily time frame showing more room for downside.
  • Weekly time shows price approaching previous low.

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USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension, taking support from 104.224 level which is in line with 78.6% FIbonacci retracement and 78.6% FIbonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices are facing resistance from both the horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 78.6% FIbonacci retracement as well as the 112.204 level which is also the weekly resistance.

On the H4, prices are facing resistance from the daily resistance level of 110.978 which coincides with 100% Fibonacci extension and 50% FIbonacci retracement. Prices might push lower towards 109.342 which is our daily support level, in line with 61.8% FIbonacci retracement. Stochastics is also showing resistance towards 97.58 level, anticipating a push down in prices.

Areas of consideration:

  • On the H4, prices might face resistance from 110.978 which is a daily resistance
  • 342 is a possible support level

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USD/CAD:

Looking at the weekly chart, price has approached the level of 1.25958 in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement in line with Trendline resistance from 30 March (2020), and shown a push away from the trendline. From here, we may see a reversal towards the Previous swing low level at 1.23749.

In the daily time frame, we see that price has closed beneath the level of resistance at 1.259 and may return for a retest. Lastly, on H4, price has moved beneath the Weekly and Daily resistance, we may wait for a retest at this zone, in line with 78.6% fibonacci extension and 50% fibonacci retracement level. Next port of call to ride the wave down would be at 1.259 towards major figure 1.25

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 may drop towards 1.25 major level from Weekly and Daily resistance.
  • Daily and weekly time frames are showing long term bearish momentum.

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USD/CHF:

USD/CHF is approaching the weekly 0.95000 resistance level, in line with our 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and descending trendline resistance. The daily chart also shows a further rise above the daily 0.92300 support level as price approaches the key 0.95000 resistance level. We could potentially see price test the key weekly 0.95000 resistance level.

On the H4 chart, we see that price continues to hold above the moving average support, in line with our short-term bullish bias. With price holding above the 0.93800 resistance-turned-support area, in line with our 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension, we could potentially see price rise and test the weekly 0.95000 key resistance level, in line with our 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Otherwise, a break below the 0.93800 support and moving average support could see price pull back to the daily 0.93200 support.

Areas of consideration:

  • Price is approaching the key weekly 0.95000 resistance level.
  • Potential for limited upside above the 0.93800 resistance-turned-support.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price continues to hold between 31190 support and 34600 resistance. Traders should continue watching these two long term levels. On the Daily, we see price drifting higher, with technical indicators continue to show room for further bullish upside. Buyers could possibly look to add to their longs on any price pullbacks with possible target at 34600 weekly resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 31190 could see price pull back towards weekly support at 29570.

On the H4, price traded sideways overnight. With long term and short term indicators still showing possible bullish momentum, a limited rise towards 33590 resistance could be likely. Sellers can consider selling on further strength below 33590 resistance to play a short term pullback towards 32148 support. Otherwise, a break above 33590 will see price push higher towards weekly and daily resistance at 34600.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 33590 resistance to watch out for
  • Long term and short term indicators show room for further bullish upside

 

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XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, gold is currently holding between 1765 resistance and 1670 support.  Long term traders should continue to watch these two levels as a break of either will see price swing in that direction. However, we note that the price is still holding below the long term moving average and a break to the downside seems more likely. On the daily chart, price bounced above 1670 weekly support. Buyers could possibly add to their longs again with 1765 weekly resistance as a possible upside target. Otherwise a break below 1670 support should see price drop further.

On the H4 timeframe, bounced strongly and is coming back to test 1725 intraday resistance. With technical indicators showing room for further downside, 1725 resistance could be a level for sellers to consider to add to their shorts with 1670 long term support as a possible downside target. Otherwise, a break above 1725 should see price swing the other way towards next resistance at 1755.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1725 intraday resistance to watch
  • 1670 long term support to hold to prevent any further drop

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