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Thursday 8th April 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices bounced off the support at 1.16200 and could see a further upside before it reaches our resistance target at 1.19800 . The daily time frame echoes the same bullish view well as prices are facing bullish pressure from our support at 1.17100, where we could see a further upside above this level before prices reach our resistance target at 1.19800, in line with our 50% Fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bullish pressure from our support level at 1.18087, in line with our graphical pullback support, 100% fibonacci extension and 50% fibonacci retracement where we could see a further upside above this level.

Areas of consideration:

  • 19800 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 18087 support area found on H4 time frame

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are trading within our support and resistance level at 1.35000 and 1.4300 respectively. On the daily time frame, prices could see further upside before it reaches our resistance level at 1.4000, in line with our graphical swing high resistance level and 61.8% fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are approaching our support level at 1.37200, in line with our graphical support level, 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 127.2% fibonacci extension. We could see a limited upside above this level to our resistance level at 1.38200.

Areas of consideration:

  • 38200 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 37200 support area found on H4 timeframe

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AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the price is trending under the ascending trendline support turned-resistance drawn from 9th March (2020). Currently price has pushed away from the trendline resistance and has closed under the 38.2% fibonacci retracement, price may head lower towards the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level.

On the Daily timeframe, prices are facing resistance from the descending trendline resistance and might push down towards weekly support in line with our previous swing low. On the H4, prices might push down towards swing low support, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. If prices increase, prices might face resistance from swing high resistance which coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension. EMA is also above prices, showing a bearish pressure for prices.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4, prices might push down towards 0.75556 and take support there.
  • Daily time frame showing more room for downside.
  • Weekly time shows price approaching previous low.

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USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension, taking support from 104.224 level which is in line with 78.6% FIbonacci retracement and 78.6% FIbonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices are facing resistance from both the horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 78.6% FIbonacci retracement as well as the 112.204 level which is also the weekly resistance.

On the H4, prices are pushing towards horizontal pullback support which also coincides with the daily support, in line with61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Prices might push up towards horizontal swing high resistance which is also our daily resistance level, in line with 100% Fibonacci extension and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stochastics also shows that it is taking support from 9.39, potential for a bounce.

Areas of consideration:

  • On the H4, prices might pullback to 109.342 support level
  • Price might either bounce to reach 110.978 level or take support from 108.347

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USD/CAD:

The weekly chart shows that price has broken above the 1.25958 resistance-turned support. On the daily chart, we see that price has made a break and close above the descending trendline as well, indicating potential for further bullish momentum. We could see price rise further above this level from here.

On the H4 chart, we see that price has made a clear break and close above the weekly and daily 1.25958 level. The MACD is also holding above the 0 line, in line with our bullish bias. In this case, we could see price rise further to test the 1.26464 resistance, in line with our 61.8% Fibonacci extension and the horizontal swing high resistance. Otherwise, should price hold below the 1.26464 level, we could see it pull back towards the 1.25063 support instead.

Areas of consideration:

  • Weekly and daily timeframe show a possible change in trend from bearish to bullish
  • Price could test the 1.26464 resistance level if it continues to rise further

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USD/CHF:

USD/CHF is reversing at the weekly descending trendline and key 0.95000 resistance, which is also in line with our 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The daily chart also shows price holding under the key 0.95000 resistance level, which is in line with our 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Price could potentially face further downside towards the daily 0.92300 support, in line with our 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price has made a clear break of the descending trendline resistance-turned-support, and MACD is also holding under the 0 line, showing bearish pressure in line with our bearish bias. In this scenario, we could see price drop further to test the daily 0.92300 support level, in line with our 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Otherwise, price could also pull back to test the 0.92800 resistance level, in line with our 61.8% Fibonacci retracement before pushing lower.

Areas of consideration:

  • Price showed a clear break and close below the descending trendline resistance-turned-support.
  • Price could face further downside towards the daily 0.92300 support.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price continues to hold between 31190 support and 34600 resistance. Traders should continue watching these two long term levels. On the Daily, we see price drifting higher, with technical indicators continue to show room for further bullish upside. Buyers could possibly look to add to their longs on any price pullbacks with possible target at 34600 weekly resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 31190 could see price pull back towards weekly support at 29570.

On the H4, price continues to drift lower below 33590. With stochastic indicator testing resistance where price reacted in the past, we still see a medium probability bearish scenario. Sellers may still add to their shorts on any pullbacks to play a short term intraday drop below this level towards 32680. Otherwise, an intraday break and close above 33528 should see price climb higher towards 34600 weekly resistance.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 33590 resistance to watch out for
  • Long term indicators show room for further bullish upside
  • Short term stochastic shows possible short term pullback

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XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, gold is currently approaching 1765 resistance.  With price still holding below the long term moving average and a drop towards 1670 support seems more likely. On the daily chart, price is approaching 1765 weekly resistance as well. We see a possibility where sellers in the neighbourhood could come in and add to their shorts. Otherwise, a break and close above 1765 resistance could see price swing towards 1845 resistance.

On the H4 timeframe, price is drifting lower, below 1746 intraday resistance. With price still holding below moving average, 1746 resistance could be a level for sellers to consider to add to their shorts with 1706 support as a possible downside target. Otherwise, a break above 1746 should see price swing the other way towards next resistance at 1765.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1746 intraday resistance to watch
  • 1765 long term resistance to watch

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