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Friday 4th June 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are seeing further limited upside before it reaches our resistance area at 1.22900. On the daily chart, price is testing key support at 1.21200 where we could possibly see some bullish pressure with 1.22900 as our resistance target as well.

On the H4 timeframe, prices dropped lower and is currently testing daily support at 1.21200. A low probability bullish scenario where we see a bounce above 1.21200 support could be possible with upside target at 1.21794 resistance. However given the bearish momentum, failure to hold above 1.21200 could see price drop further towards 1.20600 support next.

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch for a daily close below 1.21200 support

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are facing bullish pressure from our ascending trend line and support at 1.40000 where we could see a further upside above this level to our resistance target at 1.43000, in line with the 78.6% fibonacci extension. EMA is also below prices showing a general bullish pressure. The daily time frame echoes the same bullish view as well where we could see a limited upside above our support level at 1.40000 with 1.43000 as our resistance target.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing a short term pullback towards our 1.40200 level support in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Bearish pressure is felt from horizontal pullback resistance level of 1.41514 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A short term push down is possible. Otherwise, prices could see a reverse back to 1.42200 resistance level. EMA on the 4 hour time frame shows a more bearish picture with the EMA above prices.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1.41514 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 1.41123 support area found on H4 timeframe

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AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we see price breaking beneath the ascending trendline support turned-resistance, where we may see a drop towards previous swing low, in line with 78.6% fibonacci retracement. From the daily timeframe, we see a similar video where price is breaking beneath previous lows and may find support at 0.76080.

On the H4 timeframe, We see price holding at 0.76510 , in line with 127% fibonacci retracement. If price bounce from here, we may expect a pullback towards the 0.77131 level where, in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 161.8% fibonacci extension. From there, we can consider a short position towards 0.76078, in line with Weekly and Daily support as well as -27% fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 timeframe, price may bounce from 0.76510 towards 0.77131.
  • Daily and weekly time frames showing possibly bearish momentum.

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USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension, taking support from 104.224 level which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices are facing support from 108.425 level which coincides with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension. Prices might bounce towards daily resistance level 110.978 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Daily EMA is also below prices, showing a bullish pressure for prices.

On the H4 timeframe, prices might take pullback to 109.901 level in line with ascending trendline support before pushing up further towards weekly resistance. A further pullback could see prices take  the 109.066 support level in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. Otherwise, if prices did not push up further, prices could fall and take support on 108.425  level, in line with daily support levelt. EMA is also below prices, showing a bullish pressure for prices.

Areas of consideration:

  •  On the H4, prices might push up towards 110.978 daily resistance level
  • 109.066 support level on the H4 timeframe
  • 108.425 support level on the daily timeframe

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USD/CAD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we see price trending between the previous swing high in line with 78.6% fibonacci retracement, and the ascending trendline, it is currently testing the support level from 11th May (2015), in line with 61.8%, 161.8% fibonacci extension. From the daily timeframe, we see that price bounced from the recent support level 1.20284 in line with 61.8% fibonacci extension, where it’s consolidating between this level and 1.21336, in line with 78.6% fibonacci extension, 61.8% fibonacci retracement.

The H4 timeframe we saw a bounce from 1.20255, in line with Weekly & Daily support, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal graphical overlap. And price is currently approaching 1.21336 level, in line with Daily resistance and 127% fibonacci extension. From here, we may see a drop back down towards the 1.20255 level.

Areas of consideration:

  • The weekly and daily time frame showing a slow down from this bearish momentum.
  • On H4, price may drop from 1.12336 towards 1.20255.

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USD/CHF:

USD/CHF is now testing the weekly 0.89800 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. The daily chart shows that price is now holding below the key daily 0.92300 support-turned-resistance, and has also broken below the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. The weekly 0.89500 support level is a key level to watch.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price has bounced from the key weekly 0.89500 support level, in line with 61.8% and 100% Fibonacci extension, and is now pulling back to retest the 0.90800 resistance. In this scenario, price could reverse from the 0.90800 resistance and make a further move downwards. A break and close below the key 0.89500 support would see price swing towards the next weekly 0.87600 support level.

Areas of consideration:

  • The 0.89500 weekly support is a key intraday level to watch.
  • Price has just pulled back to retest the 0.90800 resistance level.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price traded sideways. With price holding above the long term moving average, we can expect further bullish pressure above 32765 support. On the daily chart, price pulled back lower and reacted above moving average and bounced above ascending trendline support. Buyers may look  to add  their longs to push price higher towards possible target at 35970 resistance.

On the H4, price traded sideways and is still holding below 35091 resistance. We could possibly see sellers enter with their shorts to play a short term drop towards 33800 support. Otherwise, failure to hold below 35091 resistance will see price push higher towards 35970 resistance next.

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch resistance at 35091 on H4 closely

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XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, prices are facing bullish pressure and could still see further upside, with 1965 as the weekly resistance target. We could see renewed bullish pressure this coming week. On the daily price pulled back lower and is close to testing 1850 support. With technical indicator showing room for further bullish momentum, we could see limited upside towards 1965 resistance.

On the H4, price dropped lower overnight and broke below previous supports. Price is approaching support at 1858 where we could see a short term intraday pause before any chance of a further drop. Failure to hold above 1858 will see price drop towards daily support region around 1845 to 1850 area. Price is now below moving average.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1858 support level on the H4 time frame

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