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Thursday 17th June 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices have pulled back and there could potentially be further bearish pressure to our 50MA at 1.19396. On the daily chart prices have pulled back and found support at 1.19907, in-line with 200MA and 50% Fibonacci retracement, where there could potentially be a short-term bounce before facing further bearish pressure to retest 1.19396 at weekly 50MA.

On the H4 timeframe, prices have broken down from the descending channel and found support at 1.19907, in-line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension, daily 200MA and 50% Fibonacci retracement. This is the key level to monitor today for a bounce toward our first resistance level at 1.20276, in-line with our 127.2% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. The next resistance level will be 1.20664, in-line with 100% Fibonacci extension and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

If price breaks current level, it could face further bearish pressure to 1.19733, in-line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension and -61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Follow by the next support level at 1.19396, in-line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension, -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and weekly 50MA.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 1.19733 and 1.19396
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.20276 and 1.20664

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices have pulled back to 1.40000 where it could potentially find support and have a short-term bounce. On the daily time frame, prices have broken below 50MA and ascending trendline and found support at 1.4000 where it could potentially find short-term support and a short-term bounce, in-line with our weekly timeframe.

On the H4 timeframe, prices have broken down from the descending trendline where it found support at 1.39727, in-line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension. We are expecting a bounce at this level to our first resistance level at 1.40133, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. The next level of resistance will be at 1.40459, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 50% Fibonacci retracement.

If price continues to face bearish pressure at current price, the first support level will be at 1.39400, in-line with 127.2% & 161.8% Fibonacci extension. The next level of support will be at 1.19145, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension, 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and weekly 20EMA.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 39400 and 1.39145 support level
  • H4 time frame, 1.40133 and 1.40459 resistance level

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AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we see price return down towards 0.76073, in line with previous swing low and 78.6% fibonacci retracement. From the daily timeframe, we saw a push down further towards 0.76063, in line with 88.6% fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 timeframe, we see price bounced from 0.76078, in line with weekly and daily support and -27% fibonacci retracement level. Where price may push up towards 0.76608, in line with Daily resistance, 78.6% Fibonacci extension and -27% fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 timeframe, price may reverse from 0.76078 towards 0.76608
  • Daily and weekly time frames showing slight bearish pressure.

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USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Prices seem to be more bullish and might break through the resistance. If price breaks out, next target on the weekly would be the 114.665 level in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily time frame, prices are holding nicely above the 21 period EMA. Prices are approaching resistance at 110.978 in line with the weekly level. A reversal from that level could mean prices would take support on 108.425 level. A continued push up could mean next target is weekly resistance of 114.665 in line with 100% Fibonacci extension level.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are showing the same picture. Prices are approaching the daily/weekly resistance level of 110.978. A break above the level could see prices pushing up towards 112.148, a short term resistance in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension. If prices reverses from 110.978, prices will pullback to take support on 109.786 which is in line with ascending trendline support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. 34 Period EMA is also below prices, showing a bullish pressure for prices.

Areas of consideration:

  • 148 resistance level on the H4 timeframe might be next upside target
  • 978 level on every time frame
  • 786 support level on the H4 timeframe

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USD/CAD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we saw a push towards the 1.22647 level, in line with 100% fibonacci extension and 38.2% fibonacci retracement. If price breaks above this level we may see it test the next level at 1.24126, in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement and descending trendline resistance. On the daily timeframe, we see price broken above the level of 1.21629, in line with 78.6% fibonacci retracement. Where we saw a push up towards 1.22707, in line with Weekly resistance, 161.8% fibonacci extension and horizontal graphical overlap. The next level of resistance may be found at 1.23225 in line with 161.8% fibonacci retracement and Horizontal graphical overlap.

The H4 timeframe shows price breaking past 1.22234 level, in line with the -27% fibonacci retracement and 1.22707 level, in line with Weekly and Daily resistance. We may see a short-term pullback down towards 1.22234 before a further push up.

Areas of consideration:

  • The weekly and daily time frame shows a weak bullish momentum.
  • On H4, price may pull back towards 1.22234 from current high.

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USD/CHF:

USD/CHF has shown a bounce from the weekly 0.89500 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. The daily chart shows that price is now approaching the key daily 0.92300 support-turned-resistance, and has also broken below the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. The weekly 0.89500 support level is a key level to watch.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price has bounced from the key weekly 0.89500 support level, in line with 61.8% and 127.2% Fibonacci extension, and is now testing the 0.90800 resistance. In this scenario, we could see price reverse below the 0.90800 resistance and drop further from there. A break and close below the key 0.89500 support would see price swing towards the next weekly support. Otherwise, should price break above the 0.90800 resistance, we could see it swing towards the next key resistance level at 0.92300.

Areas of consideration:

  • The 0.89500 weekly support is a key intraday level to watch.
  • However, should price break above 0.90800, we could see price swing towards the next 0.92300 resistance.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price is trading sideways. With price holding above the long term moving average, we can expect further bullish pressure above 32765 support. On the daily chart, the price is still holding above the moving average. Buyers may look  to add  their longs to push price higher towards possible target at 35970 resistance.

On the H4, price drifted lower and is coming close to daily support at 33800. We could possibly see more buyers enter with their longs to play a revived bounce towards 35091 resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 33800 support will see price drop lower towards 32696 support next. Price is also holding above moving average

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch support at 33800 on H4 closely

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XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, prices are facing bullish pressure and could still see further upside, with 1965 as the weekly resistance target. On the daily, price pulled back lower, and is testing 1815 support, in line with the descending trendline resistance-turned-support. With technical indicators showing room for further bullish momentum, we could see buyers looking to add to their longs above 1815 support and push price towards 1965 resistance.

On the H4, price dropped much lower and towards the 1815 support. With stochastics approaching support where price bounced in the past as well, we see a medium probability bullish scenario where buyers may look to add to their longs with a possible upside target at 1850 resistance, in line with horizontal pullback resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Otherwise, failure to hold above 1815 support could see price swing towards the next key weekly and daily support at 1764.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1850 support to watch on H4 timeframe

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