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Tuesday 22nd June 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that prices have broken the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and ascending trendline support. We could potentially see further bearish pressure this week to 1.16200, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. On the daily chart, prices found support and bounced at 1.18244, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is oversold and there could potentially be a short-term medium-probability bounce to our resistance level at 1.20073, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 200MA.

On the H4 timeframe, prices bounced and are now consolidating below our resistance level at 1.19257, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 200% Fibonacci extension. We are seeing a low-probability continuation of the bounce to our first resistance at 1.19490, in-line with 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is indicating bullish momentum supporting our short-term bullish outlook. The next level of resistance will be at 1.19800, in-line with 50% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.

If price faces further bearish pressure from current level, it would come back to retest support at 1.18630, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. The next level of support will be at 1.18032, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 1.18630 and 1.18032
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.19490 and 1.19800

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices have broke 20EMA, ascending trendline and found support at 1.37981. We could potentially see further bearish pressure this week to 1.36780, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices broke below 50MA and ascending trendline, indicating strong bearish pressure. However, RSI is oversold and we expect a short-term bounce before further bearish pressure to 1.36780, in-line with weekly 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, prices bounced back to our resistance level at 1.39165, in-line with 20EMA, 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. We are seeing a low-probability continuation of the bounce to psychological resistance level at 1.400000, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement & 200% Fibonacci extension. RSI is indicating bullish momentum supporting our short-term bullish outlook. The next resistance level will be at 1.40595, in-line with 78.6% and 127.2% Fibonacci retracement.

If price faces further bearish pressure from current level, we could see the price coming back to test 1.38120, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement & 78.6% Fibonacci extension. The next level of support will be at 1.3740, in-line with 100% and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. The next level of support will be at 1.38120, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement & 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 38120 and 1.37410 support level
  • H4 time frame, 1.40000 and 1.40595 resistance level

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AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we see price breaking beneath 0.76073, in line with previous swing low, where we may see a continuation of push down towards 0.74063, in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement, 100% fibonacci extension and horizontal graphical overlap. From the daily timeframe, we see a similar action where price is pushing down towards the 0.74362 level, in line with Weekly support, -27% and 127% fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 timeframe, we see price breaking beneath and retested 0.75397, in line with Horizontal swing low support, 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 88.6% fibonacci extension level. Where price is pushing down towards 0.74382, in line with -61.8% fibonacci retracement, Daily and weekly support.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 timeframe, price may push lower towards 0.74382
  • Daily and weekly time frames showing bearish pressure.

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USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Prices seem to be more bullish and might break through the resistance. If price breaks out, the next target on the weekly would be the 114.665 level in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily time frame, prices are holding nicely above the 21 period EMA. Prices are approaching resistance at 110.978 in line with the weekly level. A reversal from that level could mean prices would take support on 108.425 level. A continued push up could mean the next target is weekly resistance of 114.665 in line with 100% Fibonacci extension level.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are showing the same picture. Prices are approaching the daily/weekly resistance level of 110.978. A break above the level could see prices pushing up towards 112.148, a short term resistance in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Prices are bouncing off  support on 109.786 which is in line with ascending trendline support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. 34 Period EMA is also below prices, showing a bullish pressure for prices.

Areas of consideration:

  • 148 resistance level on the H4 timeframe might be next upside target
  • 978 level on every time frame
  • 786 support level on the H4 timeframe

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USD/CAD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we saw a break above the longer term descending trendline resistance turned support drawn from 23rd March 2020, and 61.8% fibonacci retracement is being tested, we may see a push down from here. On the daily timeframe, we are seeing a similar move, however, price is trending under the daily descending trendline resistance where a reversal occurred, and may push down towards 1.22730, in line with weekly support and 50% fibonacci retracement. The H4 timeframe shows price pulling back towards level 1.22749, in line with weekly, daily support and -61.8% fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • The weekly and daily time frame shows the price reversing from the key resistance area.
  • On H4, price is pulling back towards 1.22749

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USD/CHF:

USD/CHF has shown a strong bounce from the weekly 0.89500 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. The daily chart shows that price is now testing the key daily 0.92300 support-turned-resistance and ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. We could potentially see a reversal at 0.92300 resistance.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price has shown a reversal at  the 0.92300 resistance level, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The 0.92300 weekly resistance is a key intraday level to watch. In this scenario, we could see price face further downside towards 0.90500 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 161.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal pullback resistance. However, should price break and close above the 0.92300 resistance, we could see price push higher to test the subsequent weekly resistances.

Areas of consideration:

  • The 0.92300 resistance is a key intraday level to watch.
  • We could see price drop towards the next 0.90500 support level.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price traded lower, spooked by inflation fears and the Federal Reserve looking to raise interest rates as early as 2023. With price approaching 32765 support, we might see bullish pressure above this level. On the daily chart, price is still testing weekly support at 32765. Buyers may look  to add  their longs to push price higher towards possible target at 35090 resistance. Stochastic is testing support as well where price bounced in the past.

On the H4, price gapped higher and bounced above 33475 support. With stochastic testing support where price bounced in the past, we see a possibility where buyers may add to their longs with an upside target at 35090 resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 33475 should see price swing the other way towards weekly support at 32765.

Areas of consideration:

  • Weekly key level at 32765 support is of key interest

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XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, pulled back lower and is testing key trendline pullback support at 1764. On the daily, price tested and reacted above 1764 weekly support. While 1764 support looks fragile, as long as we do not have a daily close below this support, we may see price bounce towards 1855 resistance. Otherwise, breaking below 1764 support, price could drop lower towards 1677 support next.

On the H4, price bounced above 1764 weekly support and is currently holding between 1808 resistance and 1764 support. With no good levels for entry that offers good risk to reward, we prefer to stay neutral. However with stochastic testing support where price bounced in the past, we maintain a slight bullish bias on the intraday for Gold. Breaking above 1808 will see price push higher towards 1855 resistance.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1764 support is the key level to watch.
  • 1808 resistance on H4 to watch.

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