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Monday 05th July 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that prices face bearish pressure from the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement where we could potentially see the prices drop to support at 1.16200, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. On the daily chart, prices faced bearish pressure and bounce from support at 1.18244, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, price dropped and found support at 1.18095, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension and daily support. We are seeing a medium-probability scenario where the price swings towards our first resistance at 1.19090, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. The next resistance will be at 1.19573, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal overlap resistance.

If price drops from current level, it will swing towards first support at 1.17815, in-line 161.8% and 200% Fibonacci extension. The next support will be at 1.17509, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement, 200% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 1.17815 and 1.17509
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.19090 and 1.19573

 

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that the price fell and bounced from our support level at 1.36780, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices found support from weekly levels and rebounded. Prices are facing short-term bullish pressure where we could potentially see prices swing toward resistance at 1.390000, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, prices have bounced from support at 1.37282 to our first resistance at 1.38361, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. We are seeing a medium-probability scenario where the price swings towards our first resistance at 1.38724, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension and 50MA. The resistance will be at 1.39435, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

If price drops from current level, it will swing towards first support at 1.37533, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. The next support will be at 1.370000, in-line with 127.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 37533 and 1.370000 support level
  • H4 time frame, 1.38724 and 1.39435 resistance level

 

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AUD/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that the price is testing the major level 0.75, where it may continue its bullish trend towards support at 0.74177, in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, we are seeing a similar picture where price is trending in a bearish momentum and may tap on the support level indicated on the weekly timeframe. Lastly, on the H4 timeframe, we see price reversing from the level of 0.75311, in line with 50% fibonacci retracement, 61.8% fibonacci extension and descending trendline resistance. Where it may push down towards the Weekly and Daily Support level.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, price may push down from 0.75311 towards 0.74362
  • Weekly and Daily time frame showing bearish momentum

 

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USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are bullish and are pushing up towards facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance level 114.465 which coincides with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily time frame, prices are holding nicely above the 21 period EMA. Prices have broken through the previous resistance level of 110.978 and are now pushing up towards the weekly level of 114.665,in line with 100% Fibonacci extension. A pullback from that level could mean prices would take support on 108.425 level.

On the H4 timeframe, prices have broken through the previous swing high which is daily/weekly resistance level of 110.978. Next short term target is 112.148 level in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension before the 114.665 level on the daily and weekly timeframe. However, prices might have a short term pullback towards the ascending trendline support. A break of the ascending trendline will see prices push down towards the 109.786 level which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. 55 Period EMA is also below prices, showing a bullish pressure for prices.

Areas of consideration:

  • 148 resistance level on the H4 timeframe might be next upside target
  • Prices are holding above ascending trendline on the H4 timeframe

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USD/CAD:

On the Weekly timeframe, price is within a long term descending trend. Holding below long term moving average and MACD indicator is below 0, showing strong bearish momentum. Price is currently holding between long term resistance at 1.25470 and long term support at 1.20068. On the Daily timeframe, we see that the indicators are showing a build up in bullish momentum. It is possible to see further bullish pressure above support at 1.21772 with possible upside target at weekly resistance 1.25470. Otherwise, failure to hold above 1.21772 will see price swing to graphical low at 1.20068.

On the H4, we see price pushing below the moving average showing short-term bearish momentum where we may see it returning to 1.23709, in line with 50% fibonacci retracement before pushing lower towards 1.22838, in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • 23709 resistance is level to watch on H4
  • 22838 support is level to watch on H4

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USD/CHF:

USD/CHF has shown a strong bounce from the weekly 0.89500 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension, and price is now moving sideways. The daily chart shows that price is now testing the key daily 0.92300 support-turned-resistance and ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. We could potentially see further downside below the 0.92300 resistance.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price has reversed from the 0.92300 resistance area, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The 0.92300 resistance level is a key intraday level to watch. We note that Stochastics has reversed from resistance where price has reversed from before, in line with our bearish bias. In this scenario, we could see price drop towards 0.90500 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 161.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal pullback resistance. However, should price break and close above the 0.92300 resistance, we could see price push higher to test the subsequent weekly resistances.

Areas of consideration:

  • The 0.92300 resistance is a key intraday level to watch.
  • We could see price reverse and drop towards the next 0.90500 support level.
  • Stochastics is also showing signs of further bearish pressure.

 

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, prices bounced higher above 32765 support. With price holding 32765 support, we might see bullish pressure above this level. On the daily chart, price pushed higher and is currently holding below resistance at 35090. With stochastic still testing resistance where price dropped in the past, we see price facing possible bearish pressure.

On the H4, price pushed higher and is approaching daily resistance at 35090. With stochastics also testing resistance, we see a low probability bearish scenario where sellers may look to add to their shorts with a possible downside target at 34245 support. Otherwise, failure to hold below 35090 resistance will see price swing higher towards the next resistance at 35485.

Areas of consideration:

  • 35090 daily resistance is level to watch

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 XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, price tested and bounced above key trendline pullback support at 1764. On the daily, price is also testing key 1764 weekly support. While 1764 support looks fragile, as long as we do not have a daily close below this support, we may see price bounce towards 1855 resistance. Otherwise, breaking below 1764 support, price could drop lower towards 1677 support next.

On the H4, price bounced higher and is approaching 1808 resistance. With stochastic coming close to resistance, we may see price face bearish pressure below 1808 resistance with a possible short term downside target at 1764 support. Otherwise, breaking above 1808 resistance zone will see price push higher towards next resistance at 1855.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1764 support is the key level to watch.
  • 1808 resistance on H4 to watch.

 

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