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Thursday 08th July 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that prices face bearish pressure from the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. We could potentially see price face bearish pressure and drop to weekly support at 1.16200, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. On the daily chart, prices broke previous support at 1.18244 where we could potentially see price face bearish pressure and drop to daily support at 1.17270, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, price fell and found support at 1.17810, in-line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension. We are seeing a low-probability scenario where the price continues to face bearish pressure to our first support at 1.17615,  in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 200% Fibonacci extension. Stochastic also indicates possible further downside before coming into the level where previous bounces occur. The next support level will be at 1.17267, in-line with -61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

If price bounces from current level, it will swing towards first resistance at 1.18355, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension. The next resistance will be at 1.18707, in-line 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 1.17615 and 1.17267
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.18355 and 1.18707

 

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that the price is retesting our support level at 1.36780, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices bounced but faced bearish pressure at 1.390000, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension and psychological resistance.

On the H4 timeframe, prices bounced to our resistance at 1.38430 before facing bearish pressure and dropped to support at 1.37560. We are seeing a low-probability scenario where the price continues to face bearish pressure to retest our first support at 1.37560, in-line with 78.6% and 100% Fibonacci extension. RSI indicating possible bearish momentum before a bounce occurs. The next support will be at 1.37177, in-line with 127.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci extension and daily support.

If price bounces from current level, the first resistance will be at 1.38670, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension.. The next resistance will be at 1.39038, in-line with 78.6% and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 37560 and 1.37177 support level
  • H4 time frame, 1.38670 and 1.38980 resistance level

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AUD/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that the price is testing the major level 0.75, where it may continue its bearish trend towards support at 0.74177, in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, we are seeing a similar picture where price is trending in a bearish momentum and may tap on the support level indicated on the weekly timeframe. Lastly, on the H4 timeframe, we see price making a nice rejection from the 0.765 major level in line with 23.6% fibonacci retracement, where we may expect price to push down towards 0.74 major level, in line with -27% fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, price showed reversal from 0.75 and is dropping towards 0.74
  • Weekly and Daily time frame showing bearish momentum

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USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are bullish and are pushing up towards  facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance level 114.465 which coincides with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily time frame, prices are holding nicely above the 21 period EMA. Prices have broken through the previous resistance level of 110.978 and are now pushing up towards the weekly level of 114.665,in line with 100% Fibonacci extension. A pullback from that level could mean prices would take support on 108.425 level.

On the H4 timeframe, prices have broken through the previous swing high which is daily/weekly resistance level of 110.978. Next short term target is 112.148 level in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension before the 114.665 level on the daily and weekly timeframe. However, prices might have a short term pullback towards the ascending trendline support, with a possible bounce happening at our ascending trendline support. A break of the ascending trendline will see prices push down towards the 109.786 level which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • 148 resistance level on the H4 timeframe might be next upside target
  • Prices are holding above ascending trendline on the H4 timeframe

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USD/CAD:

On the Weekly timeframe, price is within a long term descending trend. Holding below long term moving average and MACD indicator is below 0, showing strong bearish momentum. Price is currently holding between long term resistance at 1.25470 and long term support at 1.20068. On the Daily timeframe, we see that the indicators are showing a build up in bullish momentum. It is possible to see further bullish pressure above support at 1.21772 with possible upside target at weekly resistance 1.25470. Otherwise, failure to hold above 1.21772 will see price swing to graphical low at 1.20068.

On the H4, we see price breaking above the previous swing high area at 1.248, in line with 127% fibonacci retracement, and may continue to push towards the 1.25470 level in line with Weekly resistance and 161.8% fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • 24800 is the level of resistance-turned-support level to watch on H4
  • 25470 resistance is another level to watch on H4

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USD/CHF:

USD/CHF has shown a strong bounce from the weekly 0.89500 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension, and price is now pulling back to retest the descending trendline resistance. The daily chart shows that price is now testing the key daily 0.92300 support-turned-resistance and ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. We could potentially see further downside below the 0.92300 resistance.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price has pulled back to retest the 0.92300 resistance area, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. The 0.92300 resistance level is a key intraday level to watch. We note that Stochastics is approaching resistance where price has reacted as well, showing possible bearish pressure.  In this scenario, we could see price reverse and drop towards 0.90500 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance. However, should price break and close above the 0.92300 resistance, we could see price push higher to test the subsequent weekly resistances.

Areas of consideration:

  • The 0.92300 resistance is a key intraday level to watch.
  • We could see price reverse and drop towards the next 0.90500 support level.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, prices bounced higher above 32765 support. With price holding 32765 support, we might see bullish pressure above this level. On the daily chart, price pushed higher and is currently holding below resistance at 35090. With stochastic still testing resistance where price dropped in the past, we see price facing possible bearish pressure.

On the H4, price broke above descending trendline resistance (now support). With MACD indicator above 0, showing room for further bullish momentum, we see a low probability bounce scenario where price would face bullish pressure above 34358 support and a possible upside target at 35090 daily resistance. Otherwise failure to hold above 34358 should see price swing the other way towards 33955 support.

Areas of consideration:

  • 34358 H4 support is level to watch

 

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XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, price tested and bounced above key trendline pullback support at 1764. On the daily, price is also testing key 1764 weekly support. While 1764 support looks fragile, as long as we do not have a daily close below this support, we may see price bounce towards 1855 resistance. Otherwise, breaking below 1764 support, price could drop lower towards 1677 support next.

On the H4, price is pulling back to retest 1808 resistance. With stochastic having reversed from, and now reapproaching, resistance, price continues to face bearish pressure below 1808 resistance with a possible short term downside target at 1764 support. Otherwise, breaking and closing above 1808 resistance zone will see price push higher towards the next resistance at 1855.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1764 support is the key level to watch.
  • 1808 resistance on H4 to watch.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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