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Monday 19th July 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

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Financial Markets Technical Outlook and Review. Daily Forex Signals, Investment Management Solutions.

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that prices are facing bearish pressure from the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily chart, prices are facing bearish pressure and we could potentially see it drop to 1.17270, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, price faced bearish pressure from the descending trendline resistance. We see a medium-probability scenario where the price faces further bearish pressure and swings towards first support at 1.17840, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. The next support level will be at 1.17425, in-line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

If price bounces from this level, it will swing towards first resistance at 1.18285, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and descending trendline resistance. The next resistance will be at 1.18763, in-line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 1.17840 and 1.17425
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.18763 and 1.18763

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that the prices continue to face bearish pressure to our support at 1.36780, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices faced bearish pressure at psychological level of 1.39000 where we could potentially see the price facing further bearish pressure to support level at 1.36780, in-line with 61.8% and 100% Fibonacci extension and 200MA.

On the H4 timeframe, prices broke down from triangle ascending trendline and found support at 1.37544, in-line with 100% Fibonacci extension and swing low support. Price is currently at a major support and we are expecting a short-term bounce to our first resistance at 1.37960, in-line with 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement before facing further bearish pressure. If price continues to bounce, it will swing towards next resistance at 1.38390, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension and descending trendline resistance.

If price drops from this level, it will swing towards first support at 1.37120, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. The next support level will be at 1.36855, in-line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 37120 and 1.36855 support level
  • H4 time frame, 1.37960 and 1.38390 resistance level

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AUD/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that the price is testing the support level of 0.74177, in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci extension. If price breaks beneath this level we may see a push down towards 0.71245.  On the daily time frame, we are seeing a similar picture where price is trending in a bearish momentum under the descending trendline, and is testing the support level indicated on the weekly timeframe. If price breaks beneath this level, we may see a retest before price pushes lower.

Lastly, on the H4 timeframe, if candle closes beneath 0.74 major level, in line with Weekly and Daily support as well as -27% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci extension, we may see a further push down towards 0.73692.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, price is showing strong bearish momentum.
  • Weekly and Daily time frame showing bearish momentum

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USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are pushing down towards the horizontal swing low support of 107.477, in line with 50% Fibonacci Retracement and 100% Fibonacci Extension, where we might see a bounce from this level. In the case that price pushes up, prices may face resistance at horizontal swing high resistance of 112.322, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily timeframe, prices have broken the ascending trendline support, and resisted the 110.699 level, which is in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement, and prices might push down towards 108.559, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. A break above the 110.699 level may see prices push up towards the112.322 level.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are forming lower highs and are looking to push down to the horizontal swing low support of 109.229, in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. If prices push up, prices may face resistance from 110.699 daily resistance, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Moreover, signal line of MACD is below 0.

Areas of consideration:

  • 229 support level on the H4 timeframe
  • 699 resistance level on the H4 and daily timeframes

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USD/CAD:

On the Weekly timeframe, price has broken the descending trendline resistance-turned-support and is currently testing the long term moving average and MACD indicator is below 0, showing bearish momentum. Price is currently holding between long term resistance at 1.25470 and long term support at 1.20068. On the Daily timeframe, we see that the indicators are showing a build up in bullish momentum. Price managed to break above the Weekly Resistance and is now testing the previous swing high from 21st April 2021. On the H4, price is broken above the Weekly resistance turned-support, and is currently approaching previous swing high resistance. From here, we may see a push up towards 1.26440.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 shows potential pullback towards the previous graphical level after tapping on 1.26440
  • 25485 is the support level to watch on H4

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USD/CHF:

USD/CHF has shown a strong bounce from the weekly 0.89146  support, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, and price is now holding below the descending trendline resistance. The daily chart shows that price is now reversing below the key daily resistance of 0.92735. We could potentially see further downside towards the 0.90462 support.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price is now approaching the 0.92017 resistance area and could potentially reverse and take support at 0.91176, in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. We note that RSI is also holding below the descending trendline resistance, showing possible bearish pressure in line with our bearish bias.

Areas of consideration:

  • Price could potentially face further bearish pressure.
  • We could see price drop further towards the next 0.91176 support level.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price is trading sideways holding between 32765 support and 37525 resistance. With price holding above long term moving average, we see price facing further bullish pressure. On the daily chart, price is currently trading sideways and testing resistance at 35090. With stochastic still testing resistance where price dropped in the past, we see price facing possible bearish pressure.

On the H4, price tested and pulled back below 35090 daily resistance. Stochastic is still testing resistance where price dropped in the past, we still see a low probability scenario where sellers might add to their shorts to push price lower towards 34358 support. Otherwise failure to hold below 35090 resistance should see price swing the other way towards 35485 resistance instead.

Areas of consideration:

  • 35090 daily resistance is key level to watch

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XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, price tested and bounced above key trendline pullback support at 1764. On the daily, price is now trading sideways, holding between 1855 resistance and 1764 weekly support. With no clear levels for entry that provides a good risk to reward ratio, we prefer to keep a neutral stance for now. Breaking above resistance at 1855 will see price push higher towards 1916 resistance. Otherwise, a break below 1764 support will see price drop lower towards 1677 support instead.

On the H4, price dropped lower and is currently testing ascending trendline support and graphical overlap support zone at 1809. With price holding above moving average, we might see buyers enter and push price higher towards 1835 resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 1809 will see price drop towards 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1794 support instead.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1835 H4 resistance level is the key level to watch.
  • Should price pullback, it could bounce at the 1815 support.

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