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Monday 02nd August 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that price bounced from support at 1.17650, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Price could potentially swing towards resistance at 1.19580, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 20EMA and 50MA. Stochastic is also at support where previous bounces occurred. On the daily chart, prices broke above resistance at 1.18780, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. Price could potentially swing towards resistance at 1.19510, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 127.2% Fibonacci extension, 50MA and weekly resistance. MACD is also indicating bullish momentum for further upside potential.

On the H4 timeframe, prices pulled back to find support at 1.1808, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 20EMA and 200MA support. Prices are at a strong support level where it could potentially bounce for further upside to resistance at 1.19123, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 200% Fibonacci extension. RSI is also at an ascending trendline support level for potential further bullish momentum. The next resistance could be at 1.19507, in-line with -61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 200% Fibonacci extension.

If price drops, it could potentially swing towards support at 1.18140, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension and 50MA. The next support could be at 1.17850, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 1.18140 and 1.17850
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.19123 and 1.19507

 

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, prices bounced towards resistance at 1.39911, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. We could potentially see the price bounce back to retest resistance at 1.41052, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. Stochastic is also at the support level where previous bounces occurred. On the daily time frame price faced bearish pressure from resistance at 1.39900 and pulled back to 1.38820, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. We could potentially see the price rebound to 1.40289, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. MACD is also indicating bullish momentum for further upside potential.

On the H4 timeframe, prices faced bearish pressure and dropped to first support at 1.38851,  in-line with 23.6%, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 20EMA and ascending trendline support. There is a low-probability scenario where the price could potentially swing towards resistance at 1.40127, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. The next resistance could be at 1.40901, in-line with -61.8% and 161.8% Fibonacci retracement.

If prices drop, it could potentially swing towards support at  1.38235, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. The next support could be at 1.37285, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 200% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 38235 and 1.37285 support level
  • H4 time frame, 1.40127 and 1.40901 resistance level

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AUD/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, price has broken beneath the 0.74177 support-turned-resistance level in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement, where we saw price retesting this area before price pushes down further. This is supported by price trending under the moving average. On the Daily timeframe, we are seeing a similar picture where price pushed away from Weekly resistance area in line with 127.2% and 23.6% fibonacci retracement level.

Lastly, on the H4 timeframe, we see price breaking out from beneath the Resistance area, once again supporting the strong level of supply pushing prices towards the support level at 0.73133.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame shows bearish breakout
  • Daily and Weekly showin bearish momentum.

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USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are pushing up towards the horizontal swing high resistance of 112.322, in line with 127.2% Fibonacci Retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci Extension, where we might see a breakout from this level. In the case that price pushes up, prices may face resistance at horizontal swing high resistance of 114.565, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily timeframe, prices are trending sideways, and are now approaching horizontal swing low support, in line with 100% Fibonacci extension, and are likely to bounce up from this level and take resistance at 110.648, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are approaching the horizontal swing low support of 109.064, in line with 161.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Prices are likely to rally towards horizontal swing high resistance of 109.828, in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Prices may reverse to horizontal swing low support in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Moreover, stochastic is approaching hidden support.

Areas of consideration:

  • 064 resistance level on the H4 timeframe
  • 828 resistance level on the H4 timeframe

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USD/CAD:

On the Weekly timeframe, price is holding below long term moving average and also 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.29950. As long as the price is holding below this level, we see price facing further bearish pressure in the long term. On the Daily, price is approaching graphical overlap support at 1.25013. With price  breaking beneath previous support, now resistance and approaching the daily moving average, we may see a further push down towards 1.23 major level.

On the H4, price has shown respect on the support level of 1.24400 as indicated previous and is now making way towards 1.25013 where we may look for the next shor position towards 1.23194

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 showing bearish momentum

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USD/CHF:

USD/CHF has shown a strong bounce from the weekly 0.89146  support, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, and price is now holding below the descending trendline resistance. The daily chart shows that price is now reversing below the key daily resistance of 0.92735. We could potentially see further downside towards the 0.90462 support.

On the H4 chart, price is still testing the support at  0.90496 which is in line with the horizontal overlap support,100% FIbonacci extension and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Price is likely to bounce up from this support and rise up to the 0.91176  price level which is in line with the horizontal pullback support. 61.8% Fibonacci extension and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Otherwise, is price breaks our support at 0.90496, we can expect price to plunge and take support at 0.89734 which is in line with the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level. Our bullish bias is  strengthened by how the stochastics is shown to be approaching a hidden support at 3.39.

Areas of consideration:

  • Price could close slightly before 0.91176.
  • Price could break the support at 0.90496 and push down further to take support at 0.89734.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price is trading sideways holding between 32765 support and 37525 resistance. With price holding above long term moving average, we see a possibility of price facing further bullish pressure. On the daily chart, price is currently trading sideways, testing and holding below resistance at 35090. With stochastic still holding below resistance where price dropped in the past, we see price facing possible bearish pressure.

On the H4, the picture remains the same as price drifted lower below daily resistance at 35090 level. Bearish divergence still remains valid on RSI indicator. We still see a low probability scenario where sellers might add to their shorts to push price lower towards 33741 support. Otherwise failure to hold below 35090 resistance should see price swing the other way towards 35585 resistance instead.

Areas of consideration:

  • 35090 daily resistance is key level to watch
  • Bearish divergence on H4

 

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XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, price bounced and continues to hold above key trendline pullback support at 1764. On the daily, price is now trading sideways, holding between 1855 resistance and 1764 weekly support. With no clear levels for entry that provides a good risk to reward ratio, we prefer to keep a neutral stance for now. Breaking above resistance at 1855 will see price push higher towards 1916 resistance. Otherwise, a break below 1764 support will see price drop lower towards 1677 support instead.

On the H4, price dropped lower last Friday, coming back to test 1812 support zone. With price holding above moving average and above ascending trendline support, a short term bounce towards graphical swing high at 1833 resistance could be possible. However, failure to hold above 1812 support zone will see price drop lower towards recent graphical swing low at 1794 support.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1812 H4 support level is key level to watch

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