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Wednesday 18th August 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

DXY:

Looking at the Weekly chart price may bearish towards the weekly support at 91.8 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension. On the other hand, price may bullish towards the weekly resistance at 93.437 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

On the Daily timeframe, price is retesting the Daily resistance at 93.217 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension and may bearish towards the Daily support at 91.782 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension. On the other hand, price may bullish towards the Daily resistance L1 at 94.051 in horizontal swing high.

On the H4 timeframe, price may bearish towards the H4 support at 92.394 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. On the other hand, price may bullish towards the H4 resistance L1 at 93.437 in line with Daily resistance.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 resistance of 93.191
  • H4 support of 92.394

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XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, price dropped lower and tested descending trendline support at 1677. Price is now holding between 1833 resistance and 1677 support. These two levels would be of key interest to long term traders. A break of either of these levels should see the price push higher towards next resistance at 1965 or next support at 1445.

On the Daily, price reacted above the weekly support at 1677 and below EMA 34. With stochastics reacting above support, we see a low probability bullish scenario where price may rise towards 1833 resistance. Otherwise, breaking below 1677 , riding downwards to 1623 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4, price drifted sideways but still holding above intraday support at 1717. With stochastics holding below resistance and price may retest the stochastic resistance as price is still reacting above EMA 34, we still might see a short term intraday push higher towards  1811. Otherwise, failure to hold above 1717 support zone, we will see price drop towards Daily support at 1677 instead.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 resistance of 1811
  • H4 support of 1717

 

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EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that price has bounced from support at 1.17130, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. If the price closes below this support level, we could potentially see it swing towards next support at 1.14578, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. On the Daily chart, price dropped from resistance at 1.18062 to support at 1.17041, in-line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. If price breaks this support level, it could potentially drop to the next support level at 1.16243, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, prices dropped and found support at 1.17027, in-line with 100% Fibonacci retracement. We are expecting the price to have a short-term bounce to resistance at 1.17261, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap resistance. If the price bounces further, it could potentially swing towards next resistance at 1.17540, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension.

If price drops, it could potentially find support at 1.16790, in-line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. The next support could potentially be at 1.16517, in-line with 161.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 1.16790 and 1.16517
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.17261 and 1.17540

 

 

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USD/CHF:

On the weekly, price is holding above ascending trendline support and also between 1st resistance at 0.95124 and 1st support at 0.90391. Traders should watch these levels closely for a break to see prices swing higher or drop lower. On the Daily, the price did not reach a graphical swing high. It is seen to have a bearish movement towards the 1st support at 0.90391. With stochastics testing resistance where price dropped in the past, we see a possibility that sellers could enter and push price towards the 1st support at 0.90391.

On the H4, price has broken through the MA 50 and is holding above it,price has just bounced off the first support in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement. Price is expected to be pushed towards the 1st resistance. Our bullish bias is further supported with the stochastic indicator, the %K line has bounced off the strong support on the chart signifying a possible bullish momentum.

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch Daily resistance at 0.92716

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, prices are consolidating after breaking down from ascending trendline support-turned-resistance and retested support at 1.36780, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 50MA. On the Daily time frame, price dropped to support at 1.37170, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, prices dropped to support at 1.37289, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 200% Fibonacci extension. Price action has also reached the downside target for the triangle breakdown. We could potentially see a short-term bounce to resistance at 1.37730, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. If price bounces further, the next resistance could potentially be at 1.37985, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

If price drops, it could potentially swing towards support at 1.36600, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. The next support could potentially be at 1.36142, in-line with -61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

 

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 36600 and 1.36142 support level
  • H4 time frame, 1.37730 and 1.37985 resistance level

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USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, price is below the descending trendline resistance, and may bearish to weekly support 107.480 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension. On the other hand, price might move above the weekly descending trendline resistance and may move towards the weekly resistance at 111.660  in line with 50% Fibonacci extension.

On the Daily timeframe, price may bearish to the Daily support at 108.559 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension. On the other hand, price might move towards the Daily resistance at 110.819 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4  timeframe,  price may bearish to the H4 support at 108.722 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension. On the other hand, price might move towards the H4 resistance at 110.815 in line with 141.4% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • 815 resistance level on the H4 timeframe
  • 722 support level on the H4 timeframe

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AUD/USD:

On the weekly, price is bouncing off our 1st support at 0.72215 in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. With stochastics on support where price bounced in the past, price may face bullish pressure as long as it continues to hold above 1st support.  On the Daily, price has broken through our initial first support level at 0.72996, pushing downwards to the new first support(weekly support) at 0.72126  in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our bearish bias is further supported by the price holding below the 200 MA and the stochastic indicator has yet to reach its support line.

On the H4, price dropped lower and is approaching 1st support at 0.72031. Price is holding below the 100MA indicating a continuation of a downward trend. Otherwise, failure to reach at 1st Support will see price bounce towards 1st resistance at 0.73866 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 potential reversal at 1st support.

 

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NZD/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we could see that prices are consolidating within resistance at 0.71040 and support at 0.69080. On the Daily chart, price dropped back to support at 0.69065, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, price broke down from the triangle pattern and found support at 0.69010, in-line with 100% Fibonacci retracement, 161.8% Fibonacci extension and swing low support. Price action has also reached the downside target for the triangle breakdown. We expect a short-term bounce to resistance at 0.69471, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. If price bounces further, the next potential resistance will be at 0.69780, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

If the price drops it could potentially swing towards support at 0.68500, in-line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. The next support could potentially be at 0.68240, in-line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

 

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 0.68500 and 68240
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 69471 and 0.69780

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USD/CAD:

On the Weekly timeframe, price is holding below long term moving average and also both 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.29950. As long as the price is holding below this level, we could potentially see the price facing further bearish pressure in the long term. On the Daily, price recently bounced from the ascending trendline support and may find resistance at the graphical swing high resistance level at 1.28075. Failure to hold above support at 1.24239 could see price drop towards next support at 1.23081.

On the H4, prices bounced above resistance at 1.26209, we are expecting a short-term pull-back to 1st support at 1.25890, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pull-back support. If the price drops further, it could potentially swing towards 2nd support.

If the price bounces up, it could potentially swing towards 1st resistance. Breaking above, it could potentially swing towards 2nd resistance.

Areas of consideration:

  • Daily and H4 timeframes could potentially have a short-term pull-back

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OIL:

On Weekly timeframe, we can see price has reversed from weekly resistance from horizontal swing high at 77.82,  price may continue its bearish momentum, may find support at 54.63 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension. However, if price breaks above 77.82 which is weekly resistance at horizontal swing high, it may swing up towards the Weekly resistance L1 at 86.59 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement.

On the Daily timeframe, we are seeing a similar bearish pressure as price break through and retest the ascending trendline support (now resistance) and may find Daily support at 64.6 which is in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Otherwise, price may move towards the Daily support at 76.24 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension.

Lastly, on the H4 timeframe, price may continue to bearish below  the H4 resistance at 72.4 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension and may heading towards the H4 support at 67.42 in line with horizontal swing low and may continue to its bearish momentum towards the H4 support L1 at 64.6 in line with 78.6 Fibonacci extension. Otherwise price may move towards the H4 resistance at 72.4 in line 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • 4 resistance level on the H4 timeframe
  • 42 support level on the H4 timeframe

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price is trading sideways holding between 33270 support and 38119.37 resistance. With price holding above long term moving average, we see a possibility of price facing further bullish pressure.

On the Daily chart, price is still testing and holding below resistance at 36021. With stochastic still holding below resistance where price dropped in the past, we see price facing possible bearish pressure.

On the H4, price is testing Daily resistance at 36021 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension. With stochastics testing resistance, we might see a bearish scenario where sellers may enter and push price lower towards 1st support at 34922. Otherwise, failure to hold below 1st resistance, price may swing towards 2nd resistance at 36693 instead.

Areas of consideration:

  • 36021 resistance level on the H4 timeframe
  • 34922 support level on the H4 timeframe

 

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