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Monday 30th August 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

DXY:

Looking at the Weekly chart price may bearish towards the weekly support at 91.8 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension. On the other hand, price may be bullish towards the weekly resistance at 94.742 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension and Horizontal swing high.

On the Daily timeframe, price is testing the Daily resistance at 93.829 in line with Horizontal swing high and 61.8% Fibonacci extension and may bearish towards the Daily support at 91.8 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by how stochastic is testing resistance where price dropped in the past. On the other hand, price may be bullish towards the Daily resistance L1 at 94.742 in 141.4% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, price is below the H4 ascending trendline support (now resistance) and may bearish towards the H4 support L1 at 91.791 in line with 141.4% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by how MACD is shown to be holding below the 0 line. On the other hand, price may bullish towards the H4 resistance at 93.829 in line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 resistance of 93.829
  • H4 support of L1 91.791

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XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, price bounced above descending trendline support at 1677. Price is now holding below 1833 resistance. Long term sellers could possibly add to their positions here and push price lower towards graphical support at 1677 level. Otherwise, a break above our resistance will see price push higher towards our 2nd resistance.

On the Daily, price is testing and holding below 1st resistance at 1833. We see a medium probability bearish scenario where sellers may enter with their shorts and looking for a possible target at the weekly support level of 1677. Stochastics is reacting below short term intermediate resistance as well.

On the H4, price pushed higher breaking previous resistances. With technical indicators showing room for further bullish momentum, it is possible to see that price face bullish pressure and could show a limited push up towards 1st resistance at 1833. Otherwise, breaking below 1st support will see price drop back lower.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 resistance of 1833

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EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that the price is retesting the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance, there could potentially be head and  shoulder in play with the price target to around 1.10840. On the Daily chart, price rebounded to resistance at 1.18155, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 50MA. Price could potentially face bearish pressure and drop. RSI is also coming into descending trendline resistance for bearish pressure.

On the H4 timeframe prices swung above resistance at 1.17886 , in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement, 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 200MA. Price could potentially continue its further upside to first resistance at 1.18050, in-line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. If it bounces above, it could potentially swing towards next resistance at 1.18250, in-line with -61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

If the price drops, it could potentially swing towards first support at 1.17685, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. The next support could potential be at 1.17320,  in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 1.17685 and 1.17320
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.18050 and 1.18250

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USD/CHF:

On the weekly, price is holding above ascending trendline support and also between 1st resistance at 0.95124 and 1st support at 0.90391. Traders should watch these levels closely for a break to see prices swing higher or drop lower. On the Daily, the price did not reach a graphical swing high. It is seen to have a bearish movement towards the 1st support at 0.90391. With stochastics testing resistance where price dropped in the past, we see a possibility that sellers could enter and push price towards the 1st support at 0.90391

On the H4, price is seen to have moved down and touched the previous 1st support. Price has reached the previous high, price is likely to push back up to the resistance level.  Our bias for the short term is bullish as the Stochastic indicator shows that the K% line bounced off the strong support line showing a potential bullish movement.

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch Daily resistance at 0.92716
  • Watch H4 support at 0.90757

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, price is rebounding from support at 1.35800, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 50MA.  On the Daily time frame price faced continued to bounce above resistance at 1.37440 and dropped, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. RSI is also indicating slight further upside before coming into descending trendline resistance.

On the H4 timeframe, prices swung towards resistance at 1.3773, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Price could potentially swing towards first resistance at 1.38190, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. MACD also indicates bullish momentum for further upside. The next resistance could potentially be at 1.38780, in-line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

If price drops, it could potentially swing towards first support at 1.37265, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. The next support could potentially be at 1.36705, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 37265 and 1.36705 support level
  • H4 time frame, 1.38190 and 1.38780 resistance level

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USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, price is below the descending trendline resistance, and may bearish to weekly support 107.480 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension. On the other hand, price might move above the weekly descending trendline resistance and may move towards the weekly resistance at 111.660  in line with 50% Fibonacci extension.

On the Daily timeframe, price may bearish to the Daily support at 108.559 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish view is further supported by how MACD is holding below the 0 line. Otherwise, price might move towards the Daily resistance at 110.802 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4  timeframe,  price is above the H4 ascending trendline support and may bearish to the H4 support at 109.117 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish view is further supported by how stochastic is reacting below the resistance where  price dropped in the past. Otherwise, price might move towards the H4 resistance at 110.815 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • 815 resistance level on the H4 timeframe
  • 117 support level on the H4 timeframe

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AUD/USD:

On the weekly, price is holding under the MA 50 showing bearish momentum, price is expected to put towards the first support in line with the -27.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Our bearish bias is further supported by the RSI indicator, it is showing a potential downward trend hence signifying a bearish momentum. On the Daily, the price is holding below EMA 34 showing a potential bearish momentum, however price might bounce off from the first support to the first resistance 0.74224 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Our potential short term bullish bias is further supported with the RSI indicator that broke the strong support level and bouncing back up.

On the H4, price is seen to have broken off the descending trendline resistance turned support and price is holding above the 50 Period MA. Our bias for the H4 chart in the short term would be bullish as the MACD indicator shows that the MACD line cross above the signal line signifying a bullish momentum.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 1st resistance level 0.73866
  • H4 1st support level 0.73866

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NZD/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we could see that price is heading towards first resistance at 0.70565, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 20EMA and 50MA. On the Daily chart, price is facing bearish pressure from first resistance at 0.70270 in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. We could potentially see the price drop to first support at 0.68850, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is also at descending trendline resistance for bearish pressure.

On the H4 timeframe, prices swung towards resistance at 0.70000, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension and psychological resistance. Price could potentially face bearish pressure and drop to first support at 0.69300, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal overlap support. Stochastic is also at resistance where previous drops occurred. The next potential support could be at 0.68865, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 50MA.

If price bounces higher, it could potentially swing towards first resistance at 0.70480, in-line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. The next potential support could be at 0.71130, in-line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 0.69300 and 68865
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 70480 and 0.71130

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USD/CAD:

On the Weekly timeframe, price is testing long term moving average and also both 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.29882. As long as the price is holding below this level, we could potentially see the price facing further bearish pressure in the long term. On the Daily price is still holding above ascending trendline support. With stochastics reacting below resistance where price dropped in the past, we see price facing further bearish pressure and could likely find support at the ascending trendline support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

On the H4, price dipped lower, and is now approaching our 1st support at 1.25786 where we also have ascending trendline support. We see a low probability bullish scenario where price could push higher towards recent swing high and 1st resistance at 1.27081. Otherwise, breaking below our 1st support will see the bullish bias fail and price drop lower towards 2nd support.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 1.25786

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OIL:

On Weekly timeframe, we can see price has reversed from weekly resistance from horizontal swing high at 77.82 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci extension. Price may continue its bearish momentum and may find support at 54.63 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension. However, if price breaks above 77.82 which is weekly resistance at horizontal swing high in line with 23.6% Fibonacci extension, it may swing up towards the Weekly resistance L1 at 86.59 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2 Fibonacci extension.

On the Daily timeframe, we are seeing a similar bearish pressure as price is below the Daily resistance at 76.24 in line with Horizontal swing high and 127.2% Fibonacci extension and retesting the Daily ascending trendline support (now resistance)  and may find Daily support at 64.46 which is in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by how MACD is shown to be holding below the 0 line. Otherwise, price may move towards the Daily resistance L1 at 76.24 in line with Horizontal swing high and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

Lastly, on the H4 timeframe, price may continue to bearish below the H4 resistance at 74.05 in line with 141.4% Fibonacci retracement and 76.4% Fibonacci extension and may continue to bearish towards H4 support at 64.46 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by how Stocastic is testing resistance where price dropped in the past. Otherwise price may move towards the H4 resistance L1 at 76.24 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension

Areas of consideration:

  • 05 resistance level on the H4 timeframe
  • 46 support level on the H4 timeframe

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price is trading sideways holding between 33270 support and 38119.37 resistance. With price holding above long term moving average, we see a possibility of price facing further bullish pressure.

On the Daily chart, price is still testing and capped below resistance at 36021. With stochastic still holding below resistance where price dropped in the past, we see price facing possible bearish pressure.

On the H4, price drifted sideways still holding below 1st resistance at 35631. We see a medium probability bearish scenario where sellers may further add to their shorts to push price lower towards our 1st support at 34690. Otherwise a break above our 1st resistance will see price swing higher towards next resistance at 36146

Areas of consideration:

  • 35631 resistance level on the H4 timeframe

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